2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

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Don’t think Taylor is out of the woods yet.

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It’s pretty funny how three to four years ago we were all preemptively claiming that Mooney ‘only has a couple years left in congress anyway’ lol.

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Yeah looks like TikTok boy is going to succeed Yarmuth fairly easily.

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I really am enjoying the customary thread lull before the polls close.  It's kinda like a pre-party before everybody arrives.  

(And then the floodgates open where you can't post anything without getting hung up on Warning - while you were typing 16 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.)

You know you can turn that warning off, right?

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When will the Pennsylvania results start to drop?

5:00 PM my time (8PM Local). NC drops in two minutes though.

That's closing, I'm not sure how much will 'drop'; and in any case those sorts of drop are generally at least half an hour after closing.

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I assume Lamb's support was supposed to be more regionally concentrated than Fetterman, which would mean...fairly comfortable win looking likely?

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Kenyatta a couple points ahead of Fetterman in Philly. Lamb a very distant third. This race is over and it's not close.

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Barnette leads in Montco EV. Really starting to think she's favored to win this...

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If McCormick is only up by 8 without the lunahick ballots in he's in trouble.

Yup. The only question is if Oz and Barnette surge equally in EDay or if Barnette is substantially more, I think.

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Honestly, it doesn't look like a Barnette win is happening tonight. She's not doing strong enough with EDay votes.

It looks like she's starting to make gains a little bit faster than Oz is now. Remains to be seen if it's enough to close the five and a half points between them.

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I really want Oz to win just for the inevitable clusterfk campaign we'll be getting.

I don't think Fetterman versus Barnette would be particularly boring either.

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Would peg the odds at 80% for Oz, 18% for Barnette, and like 2% for McCormick.

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Also, I must be getting crappy numbers on ABC's website, because as of this post McCormick leads with 32% to Oz's 30%. Barnette certainly turned out to be overrated in the end, but the MAGA team spent all of last week destroying her and that obviously worked very well for them.

It's still only like a third of the vote reporting and Oz has consistently been making massive gains. 32-30 is accurate but Oz will be heavily favored in the remainder.

Barnette also could be even stronger than Oz in the remainder, but likelier than not it's not enough.

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May have counted out McCormick a bit too soon; I didn't realize how much was out in Delaware/Bucks. Ofc the vote may narrow a lot there once more of EDay starts coming in as it has elsewhere, but that's no guarantee.

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Guys.....THE DIFFERENCE IN PERCENTAGE DOES NOT MATTER

Pay attention to raw vote margin

Mccormick is maintaining a consistent 7-9k lead as EDay votes come in. Of course, the percent margin will narrow, but raw vote isn't.

This reminds me of trump vs cruz louisiana primary 2016.

yes, cruz was massively outperforming his early vote performance, but trump's lead never changed

If the lead were larger I'd agree with this but <10K is finicky. The fact that it's been constant is good for him but just giving it the eye test with what areas are reporting the most still makes it look like it could easily slip late.

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Oz closing to 5K and ahead now in Bucks seals it I think.

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I don't know what to expect from the election-day vote out of Delaware county either, and there's a lot left there too.

Fair enough, but it's swung waaaaaaaay to Oz compared to McCormick in both Bucks and Montgomery. Could always be different there but I wouldn't put money on it.

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I don't know what to expect from the election-day vote out of Delaware county either, and there's a lot left there too.

Fair enough, but it's swung waaaaaaaay to Oz compared to McCormick in both Bucks and Montgomery. Could always be different there but I wouldn't put money on it.

DelCo is probably closer to Bucks in terms of how the Republicans there vote, fwiw.

Yeah, and Bucks just swung from a reasonable McCormick lead in EV to now a 4 point Oz lead with still half of it left to go.

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Delaware drops a majority of its remaining. Nets McCormick less than 1000 votes, lead now 1500. If Bucks remainder is anything like the last batch it's over.

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What's Oz hoping for? What counties are left for him?

Bucks is the big one. Something close to the last dump there I think would be just enough for them.

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BUCKS 100% REPORTING PUTS OZ IN THE LEAD, WOW!

Per Bucks website (same vote totals as elsewhere), there are still a large portion of precincts out. I think the 100% reporting may be premature.

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https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1526786478067417088

ITS HAPPENING

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How many more Ballots have these fraudulent PA Election Officials to count?

Let's maybe not just assert election officials are fraudulent without any evidence,  okay?

I like how he's asserting that the ballots are not fraudulent but the officials are.

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Fried Rice

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SC-7 R will be a RUNOFF between Fry and Rice!

also. lolfric