2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Sestak]

Finished my California map:

Did you draw out Khanna lol

[Sestak]

For all those who use this thread, posting any ideas/requests you have for dealing with the multitude of CA threads in the 2020 master thread (linked in quote) would be appreciated.

Finally got around to getting the directory up to date. Again, if I missed something, please let me know.


Also, we probably need to do something about the mess that is the California threads. At the moment I can find at least two general "California redistricting" thread, an OC thread, an LA County thread, and a "Southern California redistricting" thread. At the minimum, I think, we don't need both CA general threads separate; for the specific ones either combine them all into a SoCal thread or get rid of the SoCal thread and split its posts between the LA and OC threads.

Will flag this to the mods shortly but would appreciate input about how people would like this organized.

[Sestak]

While most of the discussion has been centered on what the commission may or may not draw, here is a thought I had.

Let's say that, at some point; Democrats get tired of Republican gerrymandering and abolish the commission in order to create a Dem gerrymander of California. How would such a gerrymander look like?

I assume it would be a 52-0 or 53-0 map or would there be 1-2 GOP sinks?

There are some seats (I’m thinking of Calvert and McCarthy’s seats in particular, perhaps the far north seat as well) that would probably take some really absurd bacon stripping to get rid of completely...

[Sestak]

I think the entire commission is stacked to all just be basically Democrats? even if some of them are registered Indy or Republican.

[Sestak]

California could singlehandedly solve the Republican reign of terror by gerrymandering. 

Is that what we're expecting or does CA have some type of independent commission as well?

It has a commission.  The commissioners were chosen on the basis of bios/essays they submitted, which are now public.  In addition to all of the D's, enough of the I and R commissioners to pass a map under the CA rules wrote explicitly woke personal statements.  While there are limits on what they can draw, expect a very Dem leaning map.

Not to mention the registered Republican NRDC, NARAL and Planned Parenthood donor living in BERKELEY. Who happened to write about how important California's diversity is.

That doesn't necessarily bode well for Democrats; this resume screams that this person is the type of feel-good Warren Democrat who would actually try to draw a fair/proportionality-inclined map. Not a positive in CA.

[Sestak]

...while Levin is the only Democrat that gets hurt.

I wouldn't really say that. Harder is put in an R+12 district with this map, whereas Levin's seat doesn't really change enough to endanger him IMO (D+12.7 to D+11.4).

Harder is in for a world of hurt. He either chooses to run in this new seat and loses or he tries to primary Costa or McNerney, which will likely be unsuccessful.

Nope harder got massively shored up.
Biden +10.. He still has an obvious CV seat to run in.

I know Stanislaus was split but I thought Harder's home was now in the 5th district. 2/3 of Modesto seem to be in that seat. His congressional office is also in the new 5th.

Fair enough but its an obvious seat for him

Isn’t that seat like 2/3 Hispanic? May not be the easiest thing.

I think Panetta’s new seat (assuming he doesn’t run against Lofgren or Lofgren doesn’t retire to leave him that seat) is also way more Hispanic, but as has been pointed out to me Panetta is Italian and so can fake it if need be.

[Sestak]

People really need to learn where the the Valley incumbents live

What did I say that was incorrect on this front? I noted that Harder had to either run in the Republican 5th or the 13th, which is blue leaning but much more Hispanic than the old 10th.

Given the demographic lean combined with how much of the seat is new for him I think there could be a theoretical lane for a Hispanic Dem challenger to beat him into the runoff spot. Sure he gets support as an incumbent but how much is he getting in areas he never represented in the first place?

[Sestak]

People really need to learn where the the Valley incumbents live

What did I say that was incorrect on this front? I noted that Harder had to either run in the Republican 5th or the 13th, which is blue leaning but much more Hispanic than the old 10th.

Given the demographic lean combined with how much of the seat is new for him I think there could be a theoretical lane for a Hispanic Dem challenger to beat him into the runoff spot. Sure he gets support as an incumbent but how much is he getting in areas he never represented in the first place?

That was not a comment on you, it was more the conversation in general and others who I have seen elsewhere. I thought I made this clear.

Incumbency guarantees enough. It's just simple math that has been confirmed by the past ten years of data. In your average uncompetitive seat, you have one serious opposition candidate getting 35-40ish% of the top-two vote. That is one slot down. A 'primary' challenger therefore must top the incumbent on round one to advance. Doing that when the electorate is not a partisan-only affair and has independent voters and others in the mix...it all becomes a heavier lift. On the other hand, this becomes easier to do when there are more of the dominant parties voters in the mix is easier, such as in the old CA-44 and CA-17.

Makes sense.

Do you (or anyone else) have a DRA link for the final maps btw?

[Sestak]

Actually looking at this now, the incumbent who might have the least obvious choice of where to run is Lofgren. The new 19th district with the Paso Robles tendril seems to take in a decent chunk of the SW part of her seat but doesn't include very much of San Jose proper at all. In fact it might even be a more suitable district for Panetta instead of Lofgren.

If Panetta going 19th that leaves the 18th, which does go directly into downtown San Jose but is also 2/3 Hispanic and may not be the most comfortable for her. On the other hand it may not matter; Lofgren is both well-known in San Jose and also 74 and may not care about having to defend against Dem challengers long-term.

On the other hand, on the off chance that Eshoo (who is 79) were to retire this year the new 16th seat might well become a very enticing option for Lofgren.

I don't think Lofgren is screwed or anything; far from it. But there are definitely multiple different options for her.