Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Sestak]

Orange County, CA just updated their numbers.

CA-45:  Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2
CA-48:  Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4

Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers

What about Kim vs. Cisneros?

He just said he's working on it.

Kim netted 3 votes. Which is bad for her, because she got 54% of Tuesday ballots in the OC part of CA39.

Is CA like AZ in which the "late earlies" tend to be left-leaning?

Yes.

[Sestak]

wait hang on. Was 39 Kim +3 or Cisneros +1997?

[Sestak]

No idea what the other guy is smoking, but updated CA-39 results

Kim - 78,677 (51.27%) +466
Cisneros - 74,893 (48.74%) +463

Kim increased her lead by 3 votes with tonight’s batch.

Yeah, uh, I think Interlocutor found an extra 2K for Cisneros somewhere.

[Sestak]

This is from the Sinema campaign. Three more batches one is expected to be good for McSally.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1060251726467469312

So pretty much Senator-elect Sinema is going to happen. If McSally can only get one of those batches to favor her, she's done.

It’s actually only two more batches. This conversation is from yesterday, today’s drop was one.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/harrisalexc/status/1060984339964588032

How can you argue that this should be counted?

Given the vote that allowed GOP to retain the VA CoD...

If that was counted, this should be too.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/harrisalexc/status/1060984339964588032

That vote should be invalid and would be even in states like Oregon

Except in Virginia apparently.

Hmmm, I have no idea why that vote "definitely should be counted" while this one "should be invalid".

Totally not just because one was a GOP vote and one was a Dem one

[Sestak]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jerryiannelli/status/1061042273813778434

OK, this is getting 10 million kinds of ridiculous now.

[Sestak]

Apparently the votes cast on election day were R+10 while the ones that were just counted were even in party ID and cast in the last few days.

Yes, in person election day votes. But I'm not sure that means late early votes delivered on election day are identical in party i.d. McSally's camp seems to think that, but I'm not sure its sound logic.

Even if they were she wouldn’t be picking up enough. She needs them to be better than in person Election Day.

[Sestak]

Since Sinema is going to be the first bisexual senator, she's going to have the most credibility to answer the question "Who is the most attractive Senator"?

Heinrich and Gillibrand

Heinrich is the only acceptable answer on the male side. You could make compelling arguments for Gillibrand, Flawless Beautiful CCM, Harris, and well, uh Sinema herself?

NM also now is up there in terms of most attractive person in the House.

[Sestak]

The real race in AZ is SoS now.

[Sestak]

Maricopa time?

[Sestak]

BREAKING: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema(D) elected Senator from Arizona, defeating Rep. Martha McSally (R), winning the seat for Democrats for the first time since 1988.

[Sestak]

Gaynor's (SoS) lead cut in half, now at 3,120

How many more votes do we have left? Also, wasn't this batch supposed to be more McSally-friendly? If so, does that mean Gaynor could lose even more tomorrow?

No, this was Sinema's batch. The next one will be McSally's. So depends on McSally batch vs Pima.

[Sestak]

Gaynor's (SoS) lead cut in half, now at 3,120

How many more votes do we have left? Also, wasn't this batch supposed to be more McSally-friendly? If so, does that mean Gaynor could lose even more tomorrow?

The rest of Pima alone would turn that into a Hobbs lead. Gaynor needs to win the rest of Maricopa to win

So a meaningful amount of Pima is still out?  Does this mean Sinema's lead is now basically insurmountable?

Pretty much.

[Sestak]

50K of batch A votes apparently have been quarantined.

Wait, what? There are 50K MORE?

[Sestak]

Holy f**k, that was the supposedly "McSally" batch?

Senate: Likely D -> Safe D

SoS: Tossup -> Likely D

[Sestak]

Do we know how many Batch B votes are actually left? If there were 200K left yesterday, and at least 50K of those were counted today, the math becomes basically impossible for McSally.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061417560657162240

Maricopa Totals: ~198,000
Maricopa Batch A: ~50,000
Maricopa Batch B: ~148,000

That’s callable.

[Sestak]

Pinal posted. McSally gained 503 votes and Gaynor gained 687.

They are all done with all their early/election day votes. They have 6,000 provisions they hope to process tomorrow.

Are we getting more Maricopa this afternoon?

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1062133529654394882

...which means nothing, really.

[Sestak]

KAPUTER REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[Sestak]

I never got why they thought McAdams was favored so much.

Maybe they know which SLC precincts are out? Idk

[Sestak]

Well if Utah County only has 5000 ballots left to count, only like 25% or so of that is going to be in UT-4 if it’s proportional

There are 32,000 ballots left from Utah County, only 5,000 of which are in UT-4.

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1062480549401382912

If that’s true, then winning what’s out in Utah by 50 would put her up by just over 1K. McAdams should be able to erase that with what’s left in SL. But who knows at this point.

[Sestak]

Any news about when/how many vote dumps we're getting from California today?

I believe LA County has been mentioned as dumping today - dump should have major implications on Cisneros-Kim (CA-39)

[Sestak]

Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals.

why would mcadams lose? consensus seems to be he is the favorite.

Utah County growing extremely fast and therefore ratio of remaining Utah County to SLC being underestimated based on 2014 results.

There’s like only 5,000 votes left in Utah County for UT-04.

is that confirmed fact? or speculation?

Pretty sure

https://twitter.com/robertgehrke/status/1062497407491928064?s=21

So once we get those outstanding vote totals, we’ll likely have a favorite?

[Sestak]

I do think that there needs to be federal standards for voting and vote counting. These slow-count states are becoming more of a joke and are providing ample breeding ground for conspiracies. The fact that it takes the idiots in California well over a month to count all of their votes is why we can't have a national popular vote for president

CA and WA are all-mail states. Some of those ballots are coming from a ways away (mine included). I don't want races certified before they can count my ballot.

CA is not all-mail.