2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Sestak]

Remember VA 2017 election night, when a Republican posted that his model had Enron Ed up big? Sad!

Was that the same guy whose mind model had Moore winning on election night when the votes were coming in?

Are we talking about Larry Schweikart?

I think he means Ben Kenobi, the Atlas poster.

[Sestak]

Des Moines Register / Selzer poll for IA congressional districts (GCB):

Iowa (statewide): D+6

IA-01 (Blum-R): D+7

IA-02 (Loebsack-D): D+12

IA-03 (Young-R): D+9

IA-04 (King-R): R+4

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https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2018/11/03/iowa-poll-suggests-closer-contest-steve-king-2018-jd-scholten-midterms-election-chances-vote-said/1872299002

Axne outpacing Finkenauer?
Wut

[Sestak]

LA Times-

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 41%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kwhd8oKSfREBcyKFCOopKMvpSFjwxGPo/view

That would mean the Democrats probably pick up over 60 House seats. I doubt that's happening.

The GOP snagged 63 seats with a 7% victory.

Because there was a lot of blue districts where Dems hadn't done well in presidential races in years.

Not happening tomorrow unless the wave is much larger.

[Sestak]

Why the hell does everyone want to primary DeGette for some reason?

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1105484077304606721

Safe to say Olson's the strongest candidate thus far here?

[Sestak]

Jaime Harrison (D-SC) has announced his campaign to challenge Lindsey Graham.

This belongs in the SC Megathread

Considering this is the general recruitment megathread, it’s fine to repost this in both places.

[Sestak]

Oh wow ok. Serrano was not a retirement I expected.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1110668016524627968?s=19

DePasquale considering against Perry, would probably be the Dems' best possible choice.

Yeah this seems like a very solid recruitment.

[Sestak]

GOP are supposedly trying to get Ngyuen for CA48. I see no reason why her fate won't be similar that of Kim - and I actually like her. There are a few differences about the races and the districts, but the prevailing trends will still be the same.

Nguyen has represented more of the district before, hasn't she? And doesn't Nguyen have a reputation as a moderate already built up? And 2020 will almost certainly be a less democratic year than 2018. Those are some of the differences, I think.

Possibly counterbalanced by:

1. Trends continuing
2. Incumbency
3. Trump on ballot

[Sestak]

New Jersey Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. will announce next week that he will run against Freshman Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ 7)
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/kean-will-run-for-congress-against-malinowski/

HUUUGE get for House Republicans. A+ Candidate.

Yeah he’s probably the best they could get for the seat.

[Sestak]

NY-15: Ruben Diaz Sr. iN

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/ruben-diaz-sr-run-congress-saying-hes-opposite-aoc

I really wanted him to run and would make a great Representative, he just has to get through the primary, could we have a HI-01 redux, where the most conservative candidate wins the primary

Gross

Please explain why, I think he'd be a great Congressman

You are a Republican. Jdb is a Democrat. That’s why.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1122833886797549568?s=21

<10% chance she wins the primary...

[Sestak]

Sanders has officially endorsed Newman against Lipinski.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1179753067195097090

Wait, Loebsack?

[Sestak]

We're pretty much at 2K here, so new thread here.