Given the triages so far...

[Sestak]

It seems that the Democrats may already have a floor that's just a few seats short of a house majority already.

Looking at polling and reports of triages, bar an extreme late shift towards the GOP, Democrats seem all but guaranteed to pick up the following seats:

AZ-02
CA-49
CO-06
FL-27
IA-01
KS-03
MI-08
MI-11
MN-02
MN-03
NJ-02
NJ-03
NJ-11
NY-22
at least net +3 in PA
VA-10

This is already 18 seats, meaning that Democrats would only need to need to net five out of a vast pool of competitive seats to take the chamber.

In addition, Dems have already locked up seats where they appear to be heavily disadvantaged on paper, such as KS-03 and the MI seats (all R+4) and NY-22 (R+6). Not to mention MacArthur is getting run over despite being a GOP leader in an R+3 district.

Based on this, I'd say Democrats are in an exceptionally good position to take the House.


(special thanks to Sven/Cactus Jack/whatever you want to call him for helping with this #analysis)

[Sestak]

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I actually think CA-45 might also be on the list. Walters appears to have dropped the ball bigtime.