2018 Senate Rankings

[Sestak]

As of 7 December 2017

AL: Likely R
AZ: Toss-Up
CA: Safe D
CT: Safe D
DE: Safe D
FL: Lean D
HI: Safe D
IN: Lean R
ME: Safe I
MD: Safe D
MA: Safe D
MI: Likely D
MN: Safe D
MN(s): Likely D
MS: Safe R
MO: Toss-Up
MT: Lean D
NE: Safe R
NV: Likely D
NJ: Likely D
NM: Safe D
NY: Safe D
ND: Lean D
OH: Likely D
PA: Likely D
RI: Safe D
TN: Likely R
TX: Likely R
UT: Safe R
VT: Safe I
VA: Safe D
WA: Safe D
WV: Toss-Up
WI: Likely D
WY: Safe R

Potential Special Elections:
AZ(s): Lean R
AR(s): Likely R

[Sestak]

MN Special: Lean D

If Roy Moore wins, the 2020 race becomes Likely R. If he gets primaried out, it becomes Safe R. It Jones wins its Likely R.

The ones I'm most unsure about are MT, ND, and WV. In the case of MT and ND, many persuadable voters and elastic electorate. With WV, despite the incumbent's popularity, unsure whether many Trump approving voters can stomach voting Democratic for Congress.

Manchin has done a decent job of becoming Fox News' favorite Democrat. McCaskill, Donnelly, and Heitkamp should follow suit.

Dunno if Heitkamp or Tester need to. Donnelly and McCaskill yeah.

[Sestak]

As of 13 December 2017

AL: SENATOR DOUG
AZ: Toss-Up
CA: Safe D
CT: Safe D
DE: Safe D
FL: Lean D
HI: Safe D
IN: Toss-Up (Formerly Lean R)
ME: Safe I
MD: Safe D
MA: Safe D
MI: Likely D
MN: Safe D
MN(s): Likely D
MS: Safe R
MO: Toss-Up
MT: Likely D (Formerly Lean D)
NE: Safe R
NV: Likely D
NJ: Likely D
NM: Safe D
NY: Safe D
ND: Lean D
OH: Likely D
PA: Likely D
RI: Safe D
TN: Lean R (formerly Likely R)
TX: Likely R
UT: Safe R
VT: Safe I
VA: Safe D
WA: Safe D
WV: Lean D (formerly Toss-Up)
WI: Likely D
WY: Safe R

Potential Special Elections:
AZ(s): Lean R
AR(s): Likely R

[Sestak]

Limo, are you really moving MO two whole categories to the right immediately after Hawley made those stupid comments that McCaskill is sure to capitalize on?

[Sestak]

I'm going to start doing weekly (-ish) ratings.

Left and right arrows indicate a rating change to the left or to the right.

In the last week (or two-ish), I would:

Move AZ to Likely D. The AZ-08 numbers cement this.
Move TX to Likely R. I don't think Beto's going to happen. The primary numbers show that Texas, at the very least, doesn't seem to have the same enthusiasm for him as other states do for Dems.
Move PA to Safe D. While this is probably a conrroversial move, combining Casey's popularity, Lamb's win in PA-18, the ineptitude of Casey's opponents and their lack of traction in the polls, and the national environment, I'm pretty confident Casey won't lose.
Move MO to Lean D. I honestly don't think this move will last, but with Hawley getting caught up in the Greitens palooza, I'm giving Claire the slight edge.
Move TN to Tossup. Polling shows Bredesen performing quite strongly.
Move MS-Special to Lean R. Hyde-Smith seems stronger than expected, and McDaniel weaker. Also there's no second strong Dem to create the D vs D scenario, but there are other, weaker Dems who could bring about a Hyde-Smith - McDaniel runoff.

I'm also close to putting MT-Sen at Lean just out of caution.

[Sestak]

Absolute best-case scenario for the GOP:

This seems accurate, except they'd win Montana, and lose Wisconsin.

This. Baldwin is not as vulnerable as she looks on paper, and both Nicholson and Vukmir are lackluster candidates who do not impress me at all.

Lmao, he's completely memeing you guys. It's a joke about how pundits essentially consider Tester state but seem a hair's breadth away from declaring Wisconsin a Tossup.

[Sestak]

So much for weekly ratings. Anyway, changes following this Tuesday's primaries).

Left and right arrows indicate a rating change to the left or to the right.

Five rating changes, three in favor of Republicans, mostly out of caution.

The most direct result of the primaries is moving IN to Lean R. Am I underestimating Donnelly? Quite possibly. But my previous rating was assuming a Rokita or Messer nom, and I think Braun is definitely stronger, and this is the seat I think the GOP has the best chance of picking up ATM.

No change in WV, as Morrisey splits it down the middle at Lean D. Would probably have rated it Tossup with Jenkins, and likely with Blankenship.

No change in OH because I was assuming Renacci would win.

Moving FL to Lean out of caution due to polling. It's still close to Likely.

And MT to Lean because it's not actually that much safer than ND or nearly as safe as WI/OH/MN-special.

VA to Safe because I dunno why I didn't make it safe in the first place.

NJ to safe because...yeah lol Menendez ain't losing.

[Sestak]

Trump has created a major self inflicted wound for Republicans with his new tariffs.

Because of this, a total of 9 races shift to the left.

Likely D to Safe   D: IN, MO, MT, NV
Lean   D to Likely D: WV, ND
Lean   R to Lean   D: TN
Likely R to Lean   R: TX
Safe   R to Likely R: NE

This is totally jumping the gun.

[Sestak]

Solid is very quickly turning into Reverse Lear.