Granholm holds lead, but DeVos is gaining

[Republican Michigander]

Granholm's losing her luster up here and isn't as popular in the state as she is nationally. She won her first race by 4%, closer than 2000 Bush. She was expected to win by 8 in the CLOSEST poll. Most predicted a blowout.

Her main base was state workers. She won the UP, where Bush won twice. She won big in the Alpena area as well. She won Ingham County with 60.95% compared to John Kerry's 57.78%She won GOP leaning Eaton County with 52.24% compared to Kerry's 45.58%. She took 46.32% in Clinton County compared to Kerry's 40.95% Granholm ticked off a lot of state workers.

Granholm and Kwame Kilpatrick (Detroit Mayor) aren't real happy with one another. She endored Freeman Hendrix in the mayor's race either explicitly, or implicitly. If Detroit doesn't turn out, the GOP wins. Detroit is 93.5% democrat year in and year out and gives the democrats a 250,000+ vote lead from the get go.

I expect a very close race. Blowouts are rare in Michigan which is a very purple state. Most statewide races are decided by 5% or less unless Engler or Levin are named in the ticket. The only major statewide race since 2000 which wasn't close is the 02 Secretary of State race which the democrats gave up and hardly contested. Butch Hollowell was thrown to the wolved against Sec of State Terri Land.

If the economy doesn't turn around quickly, I think DeVos wins in a squeaker similar to 1990's John Engler race.

[Republican Michigander]

I think being pro-life is a big advantage in this state, although DeVos will have to work to get blue collar support because of his background. Blue collar support is a weakness for Granholm as well as she's more of an Ann Arbor type liberal than a John Dingell Democrat. 

This is a populist state, and whoever gets the votes of the pro-union blue collar social conservatives usually wins. The amount needed depends on the Detroit/Southfield/AnnArbor/Flint/East Lansing  turnout.

[Republican Michigander]

Isn't being pro-life and socially conservative more of a problem in Oakland and Kalamazoo counties?  Those are areas Republicans need to win to beat Detriot's hefty margins.

It's a problem in Kalamazoo with Western Michigan University's influence. Oakland's not as simple as it's stereotype. (Fiscal Right, Social left). That's true in Royal Oak. The biggest change in Oakland over the last 20 years is the number of blacks moving in from Detroit. Southfield went for Dukakis by 5000 votes. It went for Kerry by about 30,000 votes. It's now 60%+ black. Pontiac has also always been a democrat and minority stronghold. Oak Park is now black majority. SE Oakland has always been very "Yuppie liberal" as well (Ferndale, Pleasant Ridge, Huntington Woods). The exurbs of Oakland are fast growing and solidly conservative and Republican. Milford, South Lyon, Highland, Clarkston, Lake Orion, etc. Those are where the gains have to be made there.

Macomb County is populist and swings. St Clair County, the UP, Monroe County, Calhoun County, Suburban Saginaw, Shiawassee County, and the Northeastern Lower Penninsula are all swing areas as well, but are more socially conservative and economic populists.

Also, a pro-choice republican is a HEAVY liability. In 1998, a pro-choice republican lost by 20% to Debbie Stabenow for Congress - while Geoff Fieger was getting creamed at the top of the ticket. She only had 53% in Livingston County - Bush had 63% in 2004. She lost every other portion of the district, swing and democrat leaning areas.