CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

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yes almost certainly. he's also boosting a ballot initiative in 2022 if I remember correctly.

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does CA have a resign to run law?

he's leaving the mayors office come January, the city has elected his successor.

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FTR: Everyone I've talked to says his rollout so far has been abysmal. Like, "finish 15 points behind John Cox in the primary if he doesn't figure his sh*t out" abysmal

how so? all i've seen is his one tweet, not sure how it could be all that much of a disaster.

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I doubt any California Democrats would brave running in the primary against Newsom... but if anyone tried who could take that 2nd slot?

maybe someone to the left of newsom. some random state senator, or former statewide office holder. Delaine Eastin and John Chiang come to mind.

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FTR: Everyone I've talked to says his rollout so far has been abysmal. Like, "finish 15 points behind John Cox in the primary if he doesn't figure his sh*t out" abysmal

how so? all i've seen is his one tweet, not sure how it could be all that much of a disaster.

Flip-flopping on his Trump support like three times during the “shadow primary” that’s been going on for a while, mostly. There’s no answer that can really satisfy everyone he needs to satisfy and he’s struggling with that

right I see. He's having trouble getting the base in line. makes sense, thanks.

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Kounalakis, Ma, and Yee have all kindasorta (jokingly? who knows) expressed interest in Gov runs before. I'm tempted to say Yee has the most profile just because she's been around the longest, but none of them have close to the profile Gavin or even Villaraigosa had last time.

Let's be honest, a row official probably couldn't pull it off. You need to look to congress and the mayors to find someone with a plausible shot at victory.

What about John Chiang? He'd probably do the best job.

I’d love to have Chiang. I voted for him in the primary. Idk if he’d run though, but I think he’d be a competent administrator.

pretty sure he still has an active PAC, if I was him I'd run in the recall were it to happen. What's the downside? Unless he's planning to run for something else in the future he won't be burning bridges.

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Some thoughts regarding the recall, which I see falling short in either signatures or removing Newsom.

So if we assume the signature effort will succeed and a recall will be held in November, that gives

1. Outside of Falcouner & Cox, who've already started exploratory committees, which other Republicans can step up and prepare for both a November & a 2022 run? For that matter, how would they be able to govern if they'll be campaigning nonstop for over a year?

2. Since this is a largely GOP effort, who's to say Newsom is recalled and the voters replace him with another Democrat? Are we to assume that if Newsom is recalled, it'll be because of incredible GOP turnout & pathetic Dem turnout?

3. It's gonna be really interesting to see if there's any kind of conflicting messages among pro-recall voters. For example, Republicans supporting it because they're anti-lockdown/vaccine reasons vs Democrats supporting it because Newsom isn't going far enough with the lockdowns & vaccine distributions.

this is about the only scenario I can see the recall succeeding, or if newsom has some earth shattering scandal and ambitious dems turn on him. High GOP turnout + a significant break among democrats would be ideal for getting the recall through. I'm just curious who would win the subsequent election.

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Are any Democrats considering a run? I think Newsom may be vulnerable in a D vs. D runoff if there's a serious Dem challenger.

chamath was a dem donor, not sure if he's running as a dem or independent

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I would change two things to the recall process: 1) I would make the number of signatures required higher, it's comically low as it sits and 2) make it so the Lieutenant Governor takes over if the recall passes. We vote for a Lt. Governor and her only job is to sit around and wait for the governor to die/resign/be removed via impeachment so why is it any different for a recall? It is ridiculous that someone could become governor with a plurality of 20-30% (or less!) if the vote is split and we have (at least in theory) a governor-in-waiting.

I'm glad republicans might benefit greatly from this recall, but you're right that the system is weird and bad. Don't recalls usually mean the incumbent gets called back for an early election? not sure why it's different in California. if they want to be special I think your system makes more sense.

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Grenell is in.

https://twitter.com/jeremybwhite/status/1360381761012658178?s=21

pain