KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This seat would be Lean D if it were Kobach vs Sebelius.

I hope that is what happens.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This seat would be Lean D if it were Kobach vs Sebelius.

I hope that is what happens.

Sebelius is on of the worst candidates Dems could possiblly recruit. Her personal popularity in the state absolutely plummeted after becoming HHS Secretary.

This. Also we've seen former governors come back to try running for Senate in unfavorable states so many times in the past few years (Bayh, Strickland, Bredesen, Lingle, Kerrey, Thompson), and it never ends well for them.

With the exception of Strickland, all the candidates you mention did better than practically any other candidate from their party would have done in the Senate race in the year and state in which they ran.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Pompeo out:

https://twitter.com/DaviSusan/status/1098572745779093504

I am willing to bet on Trump firing Pompeo (or him resigning) after the GOP primary for this seat is already settled.

Pompeo probably runs anyways to be honest if it appears as if Trump is a substantial underdog for re-election. If Trump loses re-election, his term for Secretary of State is instantly over, regardless of whether or not he ran for something else.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

I always thought he was an inevitability for some higher office. I really hope not though, that's why the Kansas result in 2018 was probably the most exciting one. I wish he would just go away.

Relax

If Kris Kobach is the nominee for the 2020 Senate Race, it goes to Lean D.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

I always thought he was an inevitability for some higher office. I really hope not though, that's why the Kansas result in 2018 was probably the most exciting one. I wish he would just go away.

Relax

If Kris Kobach is the nominee for the 2020 Senate Race, it goes to Lean D.

Don't get me wrong, it would be more competitive with him in the race. He is just about the worst candidate that Republicans can get. But I would not expect it to play out how the gubernatorial election did. Gubernatorial and Senate elections are often two completely different dynamics.

The statewide margin results of the 2016 Governors Race and 2018 Senate Race in Indiana, Missouri, and Montana were all within just half of a single percentage point from eachother. Manchin did worse because he was stupid to vote for Kavanaugh. Heitkamp did better because Democrats did not attempt to contest the states Governors race in 2016.

Governors races have been becoming more and more polarized as a Senate race would be in recent years.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

I always thought he was an inevitability for some higher office. I really hope not though, that's why the Kansas result in 2018 was probably the most exciting one. I wish he would just go away.

Relax

If Kris Kobach is the nominee for the 2020 Senate Race, it goes to Lean D.

hahaha funny.

Why do you wait to quote a post to say it is funny until over 1 months after it was posted, slightly closer to 2 months? Is there something in the news that you are hiding?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

I always thought he was an inevitability for some higher office. I really hope not though, that's why the Kansas result in 2018 was probably the most exciting one. I wish he would just go away.

Relax

If Kris Kobach is the nominee for the 2020 Senate Race, it goes to Lean D.

hahaha funny.

Why do you wait to quote a post to say it is funny until over 1 months after it was posted, slightly closer to 2 months? Is there something in the news that you are hiding?

I don't have time to check every thread every day. I just happened to see it and thought it was funny. I don't see the big deal.

Well what I said about 2020 KS-SEN is Lean D if Kobach is the nominee is still true.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Kobach to announce for Senate next month, report says.

(via Sunflower State Journal)

KS-SEN is Lean D if Kobach wins the nomination.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Kobach to announce for Senate next month, report says.

(via Sunflower State Journal)

KS-SEN is Lean D if Kobach wins the nomination.

Nope, Likely to Safe R. The only reason Kobach lost the gubernatorial election is because it was a state race, not a national race.

In 2010, Republicans failed to win a single gubernatorial race in >60% Obama in 2008 states, while they won 2 senate races in such states and came a primary election misfire away from winning 2 more, for a total of 4. The data points are more mixed than you realize.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I hope Kobach wins the Republican nomination. Its the difference between whether this race is Likely R or Lean D.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The people framing Kobach's candidacy specifically as the end of the world seem to forget that LaTurner will vote 100% identically to him. Modern Republicans are Nazis and there are no longer any exceptions (except Amash, I guess).

I hope Kobach wins the nomination, just so I can see how long he lasts before he opens his mouth or turns out to be a pedophile.

Why would knowledge of him being a pedophile have survived in its hidden status from his Gubernatorial run? I doubt it at this point.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If any Republican can lose here, it's Kobach. But unlike gubernatorial elections, Senate elections are much different and Kobach will still be favored if he's the nominee. The risk of him being a slightly weaker nominee than a more conventional Republican isn't worth it. I hope he loses the nomination even if it means making a race that could have been likely R at best become safe R. The same goes with Roy Moore in Alabama. I'll take guaranteed generic awfulness over a gamble to defeat insurmountable crazy awfulness any day.

2010 disagrees with the idea that Senate Elections are more geographically polarized than Gubernatorial Elections. Also, the race is Lean D with Kobach. No need to get worked up about it.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The Republican primary for this seat is shaping up to be just exactly the type of crowded field that would allow Kobach to clinch the nomination with a narrow plurality, and proceed to throw this seat to the Democrats in the general election.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I'd stay put if I were Pompeo. That's just me though.

Maybe he's worrying that Trump might start to turn on him? Or maybe he's wanting the long-term stability of a Senate seat? Either way, I don't see him jumping from his current role unless there's publicly unknown drama among the top foreign policy positions of the administration or Trump beginning to dislike Pompeo for whatever reasons.

Or maybe he thinks Trump could lose, which means he loses his Secretary of State position no matter what, or that he thinks he is the only person capable of keeping the seat Republican, and can only do that if he actually makes a run for it, because otherwise, Kobach would cost Republicans the seat.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Not sure why people think this is anything other than Safe R. Even if Kobach is the nominee, Senate races are not Gubernatorial races.

Actually, they are very similar. Far closer to each other than either are to Presidential races. In 2006 and 2018, polarization was about equally strong between the 2. In 2014, polarization was admittedly much stronger in Senate races than in Gubernatorial races. However, in 2010, polarization was actually much stronger in Gubernatorial races than in Senate races.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Kris Kobach could easily win the nomination then blow the general. This is not like Alabama with Moore here. Moore has a primary runoff problem, Kobach does not. The hardcore cultists can nominate Kobach, and they will.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Mark my words. The hardcore cultists are going to go all in on Kris Kobach in the Republican primary, allowing him to win the nomination with a narrow plurality, and then he will fail in the general causing the seat to flip to the Democrats.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Tilt D.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The title gets changed to Marshall leads slightly... because he leads by *1 point* in *1 poll* while still trailing substantially in the average...

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Kobach isn't going to be the nominee. Roger Marshall is raising a lot more money and will most likely get Trump's endorsement.

Bummer.

I get that the margin would be closer with Kobach but I don't want that idiot anywhere near the senate

It's not just "that the margin would be closer." It's that race would legitimately be winnable.

I don't think it's winnable even with Kobach, but let's stop pretending that Senator Kris Kobach would be any more dangerous than Senator Roger Marshall in terms of voting record.

We literally just beat Kobach 2 years ago. We can do it again this year.