WV-03: Williams out

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Ojeda cannot win in R+23 territory.

He is a strong candidate, but R+23 is just too much for him to beat.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Ojeda cannot win in R+23 territory.

He is a strong candidate, but R+23 is just too much for him to beat.

Manchin is going to be winning WV-03 by 10+ points...

WV-03: R+23
WV-01: R+19
WV-02: R+17

and Manchin (D) will perform best in the most Republican District in the state?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Joe Manchin is probably going to win statewide, but he will likely perform better in WV-02 and WV-01 than he will in WV-03 (especially considering his likely opponent, Evan Jenkins, was from WV-03, being the Representative there).

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

In 2016 WV scored an R+22 in PVI calculation simultaneously as Jim Justice, a non-incumbent, won his bid for Governor as a Democrat by a very comfortable margin. The same year Ojeda won his R+31 State Senate district with 58% of the vote. He's a great fit for the district and in certain cases you can't judge a district solely by it's PVI.

But Justice was the king of the DINOs

Point is he ran as a Democrat. While WV does have a strong partisan lean on the presidential level, the parties there aren't that strong in general.  People in southern West Virginia especially, are more likely to vote Democrat down ballot then a lot of other places. This district is gonna be Joe Manchin's best district in 2018 for that matter. In a 10% win statewide, I could see Manchin winning this district by like 15 points. If there are that many voters willing to support Joe Manchin then I don't think it's unreasonable to imagine Ojeda having a shot in this district, especially given how strong a candidate he is.

Which incidentally is one of the reasons that Manchin should suck it up and send some money Ojeda’s way. Hav No a strong congressional campaign in this district will only benefit him.

No way. Manchin should not be throwing money away at pointless stuff like that.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Democrats picking up any R+20 (or higher) District is less likely than Democrats making a triple digit total net gain in the House, in the 2018 elections.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Ojeda if he does win should challenge Justice in 2020 hes the perfect candidate for it

Only if we want a second in a row Democratic governor defecting to the GOP in their 1st year.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2016&fips=54903&f=0&off=0&elect=0

Hillary Clinton basically got 50,000 votes in this District. A significant portion of those votes will probably go to the Mountain Party nominee if Democrats nominate someone who supported Trump openly in 2016.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2016&fips=54903&f=0&off=0&elect=0

Hillary Clinton basically got 50,000 votes in this District. A significant portion of those votes will probably go to the Mountain Party nominee if Democrats nominate someone who supported Trump openly in 2016.

Ojeda's basically the Appalachian Bernie Sanders. I don't think enough voters actually care about who he supported in 2016 (which, by the way, was electorally necessary – had he endorsed Clinton he would've committed political suicide) that it would impact the results in any meaningful way.

The point is that is was political suicide either way.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Melody Potter is really acting like she wants to make what should be a Safe hold competitive. Note that this is an R+23 District, and PA-18 was an R+11 District, but after thinking about it, I have decided to shift this District from Safe R to Lean R.

Melody Potter has created an opening for Richard Ojeda to possibly win, through her misguided insults.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

West Virginia republicans are not attacking Ojeda for being on the government dole:

https://twitter.com/MelodyWVGOP/status/974295023666843648

Of course, she fails to mention that said "government money" is a military pension earned after 4 tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. The West Virginia GOP has no idea what to do with Ojeda.

My god that's an insane ratio

8 to 793