IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 16, 2024, 02:50:12 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread  (Read 115758 times)
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,779


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« on: March 20, 2018, 04:44:41 PM »
I guarantee you that Rauner will win re-nomination. Ives is not a serious candidate, and will not come close to winning the primary.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,779


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2018, 08:01:55 PM »
I wondew who will win Ogle and Lee Counties.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,779


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2018, 09:51:28 PM »
Still nothing in with Ogle County.

Rauner won Lee County.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,779


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2018, 09:56:56 PM »
Quote from: whitesox130 on March 20, 2018, 09:55:32 PM
Quote from: COME ON DANIEL BISS AND MARIE NEWMAN on March 20, 2018, 09:53:33 PM
Quote from: Alabama_Indy10 on March 20, 2018, 09:51:05 PM
Quote from: libertpaulian on March 20, 2018, 09:49:45 PM
Quote from: America's Sweetheart ❤ on March 20, 2018, 09:48:09 PM
Even if he holds on, the fact that this is so close is an extremely ominous sign for Rauner in the general. An energized D base + pissed off hard-right Republicans is a losing combo for him.
Combined with the fact that this is an anti-Trump year...


Combined with the fact that he's running in Illinois..
Illinois actually tends to elected Republican governors, Blago was the first Dem to win reelection since Otto Kerner in 1964.
Illinois's blue shift is a relatively recent (last 25 years) phenomenon.

Until Bush Jr, no Republican won the presidency without Illinois.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,779


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2018, 01:51:15 PM »

That map looks ugly.

It is really hard to understand how this happened.

In the South, Democrats overperformed substantially:

Most shockingly: Gallatin County voting more than 70% Dem after voting over 70% for Trump in 2016.

Other notes:

It is surprising that the statewide Democratic margin was insufficient to hold Winnebago County, despite Clinton winning there in 2016.

Henderson County came back to the Democrats after previously being among the 10 strongest swinging Counties to Trump in 2016.

It is surprising that the Democratic margin was insufficient to flip McHenry, McLean, Sangamon, Jo Daviess, Whiteside, and Knox Counties.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,779


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2018, 02:04:42 PM »
Quote from: Atlas Force on March 22, 2018, 04:37:55 PM


Thats not you you spell Scott Walker...
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,779


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #6 on: April 11, 2018, 04:22:18 PM »
This moves the race from Lean D to Likely D.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,779


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #7 on: April 19, 2018, 04:28:27 PM »
Pritzker is not going to reach Obama 2012/Clinton 2016/Duckworth 2016 margin of victory levels.

His ceiling is probably at the Durbin 2014/Kerry 2004 margin of victory level, honestly.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,779


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2018, 05:50:52 PM »
Rauners remarks on capital punishment are inappropriate.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,779


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2018, 06:30:52 PM »
Quote from: Jimmie on May 15, 2018, 06:04:48 PM
History may be made..

JB Pritzker.. First Democrat to win DuPage County, IL in a very long time. If ever!

hahahahaahhaahhaah

I don't dislike Rauner and am personally neutral on this particular contest. However, I support Pritzker and hopes he wins huge to support my cause.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2016&fips=17043&f=1&off=0&elect=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2012&fips=17043&f=1&off=0&elect=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2008&fips=17043&f=1&off=0&elect=0
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,779


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #10 on: July 04, 2018, 05:54:46 PM »
Lean D --> Safe D
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,779


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2018, 03:13:33 PM »
For a while I was saying I expect a Democratic win of 5-10 points. No longer the case. I now expect a Democratic win of 20-25 points.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,779


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2018, 09:04:41 PM »
Bruce Rauner only became so unpopular after Mike Madigan lost his veto-proof majority in the 2016 elections.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,779


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2018, 10:00:56 PM »
This is the worst gubernatorial race in the Country.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.039 seconds with 12 queries.