United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[AustralianSwingVoter]

George Osborne claims he has inside info the election is being planned for November 14th.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/11/general-election-likely-to-take-place-on-14-november-says-george-osborne

Not sure why it's being so dragged out, if this is true. The result will essentially be a done deal at this point. Whatever keeps the Tories in power for whatever time they have left, I guess.

It's what governments who think they are going to lose tend to do. I suppose it's a combination of trying to enjoy the trappings of power for as long as possible and hoping that something will turn up.

There might also be the pay to consider. The British shadow ministry doesn't get an extra salary allowance, so by lasting in office for an extra 12 months Tory Cabinet ministers make an extra £70,000, Ministers of State £31,000 and Under-Secretaries £22,000. Everyone except Rishi and the whips drop back to the base rate MP's salary when they inevitably return to opposition.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Labour’s inability to poll above 50% is literally the only cope the Tories have left.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Would love to meet some Labour 2019/Tory 2024 voters. Who even are they? Accelerationists? Mark Latham imitators? Idiots? Leicester East?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

It strikes me how little headway the Lib Dems have been making, still polling below the 2019 result. For the Tories to fall sub-100 seats you’d surely need to see the Lib Dems breaking 16%.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Lib Dems winning more seats than 1997 on 2/3rds the vote share, and up less than a point on 2019 still feels a bit off to me. Could their vote really get *that* efficient? I kinda think they're underpolled and are going to stumble into 16-18% through strong seconds in the shires.
And I just can't see that Reform UK vote coming out in an election. They're getting pitiful donations (less than Sinn Fein last year!) and I really can't imagine them sustaining an election campaign on the level of UKIP 2015, much less getting a similar result.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Lib Dems winning more seats than 1997 on 2/3rds the vote share, and up less than a point on 2019 still feels a bit off to me. Could their vote really get *that* efficient? I kinda think they're underpolled and are going to stumble into 16-18% through strong seconds in the shires.
And I just can't see that Reform UK vote coming out in an election. They're getting pitiful donations (less than Sinn Fein last year!) and I really can't imagine them sustaining an election campaign on the level of UKIP 2015, much less getting a similar result.

The gap between the Lib Dems and the Tories in percentage terms is actually lower than it was in 1997 on this.

That's a rather good point actually. Though it does also make me think that 155 seats seems a bit high for 24%? Especially with an alleged 12% Reform vote.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The thing is if you're the Tories you CANNOT admit this openly. You have to pretend there's still a chance otherwise people will just not vote or vote Reform.

In Australia this is now known as the Zak Kirkup rule. It turns out that conceding an election two weeks before polling day destroys your entire campaign and gives your base no reason to vote for you.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Constantly leaking different dates for a snap election to desperately try to confuse the opposition is a very Australian tactic btw.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

So one of the absolute final acts of this era of Tory government will be selling the Royal Mail to a Czech billionaire? Rather apt really.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

A reminder of a past July snap election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Are the Tories barred from changing leaders after the election is called?

No, but obviously the idea is insane.

Just seeing Sunak he might actually sink the boat deeper. Is there no one who can at least stablise the situation?

There is one last hope...

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I wonder if Seb Payne will manage to weasel himself into a safe seat now.

Tory chairman Richard Holden is also sniffing round for a seat. He had a strong claim to stand in the redrawn Bishop Auckland with a 15% Tory majority (much safer than his current seat), but, well, he clearly wants a much safer seat than that given the circumstances.

If he doesn’t hold on he’d still have a decent claim to that safer seat once it surely goes to a by-election. I doubt the local member will want to hang around in parliament after defeat.