Australia General Discussion 4.0: It ain’t easy under Albanese

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Rest In Piss

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-64245422

This feels infinitely worse than all those blackface scandals. At least those outside of the US you could argue ignorance until a decade or so ago. I'm not sure how you could think that wearing a Nazi uniform was ever OK.

However it’s important to note this is an obvious hit job on Perrottet by Clubs NSW in retaliation for his anti-gambling proposals. The timing is very blatant.

But hey, at least they didn’t firebomb his house like they totally definitely 100% didn’t do to Jordan Shanks/friendlyjordies.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-64245422

This feels infinitely worse than all those blackface scandals. At least those outside of the US you could argue ignorance until a decade or so ago. I'm not sure how you could think that wearing a Nazi uniform was ever OK.

However it’s important to note this is an obvious hit job on Perrottet by Clubs NSW in retaliation for his anti-gambling proposals. The timing is very blatant.

But hey, at least they didn’t firebomb his house like they totally definitely 100% didn’t do to Jordan Shanks/friendlyjordies.

Agreed.

100% political from the Transport Minister of the Liberal Party who does not like his politics.

To call it ideological gives him too much credit. David Elliot is in the pocket of the gambling industry and deeply embittered he’s been forced to retire after a hopeless Preselection battle (thanks to the redistribution).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-64245422

This feels infinitely worse than all those blackface scandals. At least those outside of the US you could argue ignorance until a decade or so ago. I'm not sure how you could think that wearing a Nazi uniform was ever OK.

However it’s important to note this is an obvious hit job on Perrottet by Clubs NSW in retaliation for his anti-gambling proposals. The timing is very blatant.

But hey, at least they didn’t firebomb his house like they totally definitely 100% didn’t do to Jordan Shanks/friendlyjordies.

Agreed.

100% political from the Transport Minister of the Liberal Party who does not like his politics.

To call it ideological gives him too much credit. David Elliot is in the pocket of the gambling industry and deeply embittered he’s been forced to retire after a hopeless Preselection battle (thanks to the redistribution).

You know more about these guys than I do.

Well you're out in Perth, right? Gloriously insulated from the nuclear stupidity of NSW state politics. Meanwhile I'm a Sydneysider so it's inescapable.

You can't even get a model Tamiya plane with a swastika on the back wing anymore.

They only do that because of German laws. It'd be far too much hassle to have two seperate decals for german and non-german sale, so they just comply with the strictest laws. Just like many California regulations are de facto nationwide.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I don't follow Australian politics too closely, although I do make an attempt to understand the basics. With that said, I'm legit curious. How long before the republican movement gets its legs back and makes another attempt? As some time has passed since the Queen's death, is Albanese really going to wait until a second term (if he gets one) or will the itch become too great?

If the Aboriginal Voice referendum doesn't go well then the Republic is off the table for Albo. If it goes well then they probably start the process next term.

I'd still bet against a republic referendum succeeding though. It's just so symbolic and pointless that it's hard to get people motivated. Making the Governor General more powerful isn't a particularly inspiring goal.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Has he tried saying that his sister in law found it funny?

Well by sheer coincidence at least three current sitting Liberal MPs attended the party and can vouch for him!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Jim Molan is dead.

> Almost destroys the coalition agreement in the 2018 preselection debacle (is it too obvious i still hold it against him?)
> Lucks into Sinodinos's seat anyway
> Claims to be pro-life
> Dies anyway

I'll never forget "I'm not relying on evidence" for denying climate change. No more brilliant rebuttal than “You should keep an open mind but not so open that your brain falls out."

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Western Australian opposition has imploded in hilarious fashion today.

Her Accidency the Opposition Leader Mia Davies has stepped down from leadership, and looks likely to retire at the next election. WA Nats only have 4 MPs but it looks like they might still have a 2 way fight (their 4th MP only won a by-election 6 months ago, so couldn't really be involved)
Onto the worst job in Australian politics, leader of the WA Liberals. Who have decided to put on a complete farce. They only have two lower house MPs, both career backbenchers until the shellacking in 2021. One became leader. The other has decided to challenge him in a farcical leadership spill. It looks like she has the numbers (there are 7 upper house MPs in addition to the lower house duet).

Only in Australia could a party of four have a leader resign and a contested election And a party of two have a leadership spill. No I'm not joking.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

So Lidia Thorpe has quit the Greens.

She is truly a left wing clone of Pauline Hanson. She wants to be Australia's AOC, but lack a single one of AOC's qualities.

Aaand we're stuck with her for five more years. What a shambles.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Member for Aston Alan Tudge is set to resign. Unknown what excuse he'll use to deflect from abusing his mistress.

Speculation is already mounting that Josh Frydenberg will take the opportunity to run in the by-election and return to politics.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Senate staff have decided to seat the now Independent Senator Thorpe next to Pauline Hanson. Neither are happy. Quite possibly an excellent troll by the senate functionaries.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The date for the Aston by-election has been set. April Fool's Day. Media is already having fun with it.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Member for Aston Alan Tudge is set to resign. Unknown what excuse he'll use to deflect from abusing his mistress.

Speculation is already mounting that Josh Frydenberg will take the opportunity to run in the by-election and return to politics.

Aston noticeably went 53-47 Liberal so it will be interesting to see the results of the by-election. ASV, could you see Labor winning Aston?

That result was as close as it was because Alan Tudge was widely disliked for his ongoing scandals and moral failure.  It's likely that the Liberal vote in Aston will have a small rebound despite the favorable national and state environment for Labor.

The direct response to the scandal is only part of it. Because of it he was basically barred from the campaign trail, so the Liberal ground effort in Aston was incredibly weak and unenthusiastic. The sizeable Chinese population (14%) drove the swing up further.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Nuclear submarine deal released. $368 Billion over 30 years for 8 subs.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tomorrow is the Arafura by-election in the NT. Called due to the death of Labor member Lawrence Costa, won on a margin of 2.7%. It's a straight fight between Labor's Manuel Brown, the liaison officer for the ex-member and the Country Liberal's Leslie Tungutalum, son of former local member and first Aboriginal NT parliamentarian Hyacinth Tungutalum.

The seat of Arafura covers the Tiwi Islands (~25% of pop) and western Arnhem Land (~75% of pop), including world-famous Kakadu National Park. It has the highest share of Aboriginal population of all electorates at 82%, of the Tiwi, Kunwinjku and Burarra people.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

So could this be a case of local and "ethnic" factors predominating?

In an electorate of just 6,000 people in an area the size of Croatia to an extent they’re one and the same. Politics in the NT Outback is hyperlocalised, when there’s only 2,500 votes cast it’s inevitable really.
Only in the urban areas of Darwin-Palmerston and Alice Springs is politics more formal and ideological.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Final results now in for Arafura.

Turnout 52%, same as the last election. Pretty solid given it's the middle of the wet season in the Top End.
And a surprisingly thumping win for Labor's Manuel Brown, 69/31 2pp. You could interpret this (and Canberra journos will) as the Aboriginal community rejecting the CLP's opposition to the Voice, but it's likely more a mix of local issues and campaigning.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Holy crap, NSW Liberals really give Republicans a run for their money, don't they?

If you think we're bad, just look at NSW Labor! Rex Jackson, Milton Orkopoulos, Eddie Obeid, Ian Macdonald and so much more

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Re Rex Jackson, he was Wran’s Prisons Minister. Got into some gambling debts, took a bribe to grant parole to “friends” of his “creditors”. Wran was also neck deep into police corruption. Not to mention the Murray Farquhar affair.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Whose currently more dominant in the NSW Labor party as far as the right and left wing factions go?

The NSW Right has held hegemony over the state party since the 50s thanks to the split being averted north of the Murray, and is still the most powerful federal grouping even if the Left holds a narrow federal majority. The NSW Left faction has long been neutered and controlled, and has better relations with the right than in other states. Until 2009 the NSW Labor branch was an electoral juggernaut which granted them even more national influence. Their electoral meltdown of the last 15 years has damaged that, and power within the Federal party has been shifting towards the Victorian branch, which has been left controlled for a while now however with incredibly bitter and acrimonious relations between their messy factions.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Whose currently more dominant in the NSW Labor party as far as the right and left wing factions go?

The NSW Right has held hegemony over the state party since the 50s thanks to the split being averted north of the Murray, and is still the most powerful federal grouping even if the Left holds a narrow federal majority. The NSW Left faction has long been neutered and controlled, and has better relations with the right than in other states. Until 2009 the NSW Labor branch was an electoral juggernaut which granted them even more national influence. Their electoral meltdown of the last 15 years has damaged that, and power within the Federal party has been shifting towards the Victorian branch, which has been left controlled for a while now however with incredibly bitter and acrimonious relations between their messy factions.

Disappointing. Thank you for giving me more insight!

You shouldn’t be disappointed, it isn’t like factional control has an impact on policy. It’s more about pre-selections and union favouritism, policy is jointly decided in private between the factions and the usual pollsters and focus groups. (Public) Disunity is Death

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Whose currently more dominant in the NSW Labor party as far as the right and left wing factions go?

The NSW Right has held hegemony over the state party since the 50s thanks to the split being averted north of the Murray, and is still the most powerful federal grouping even if the Left holds a narrow federal majority. The NSW Left faction has long been neutered and controlled, and has better relations with the right than in other states. Until 2009 the NSW Labor branch was an electoral juggernaut which granted them even more national influence. Their electoral meltdown of the last 15 years has damaged that, and power within the Federal party has been shifting towards the Victorian branch, which has been left controlled for a while now however with incredibly bitter and acrimonious relations between their messy factions.

Disappointing. Thank you for giving me more insight!

You shouldn’t be disappointed, it isn’t like factional control has an impact on policy. It’s more about pre-selections and union favouritism, policy is jointly decided in private between the factions and the usual pollsters and focus groups. (Public) Disunity is Death

Not to worry, we are not as united as everyone believes.

That’s an entirely seperate issue. *Public* Unity is Labor’s mantra after all. The party room might be beyond divided on a policy, but once the decision is made everyone faithfully follows the whip and doesn’t complain on record.

Contrast with the Coalition’s long-standing acceptance of floor crossing and our joyful public disunity.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

So Mark Latham has made some disgusting comments regarding Alex greenwich, the Independent gay MP for Sydney.

I won't repeat them here because they are beyond disgusting. Go on Twitter and have a look at them if you so desire.

Latham made the comments on Twitter on Thursday morning in response to an article in which Greenwich called Latham “a disgusting human being”. The article was about LGBTQ+ protesters being targeted outside an event Latham spoke at earlier this month.

Only Mark Latham could respond to an article that calls him disgusting in a way that makes Pauline Hanson call him disgusting.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Aston by-election tomorrow. If the Liberals manage to lose it Dutton may be rolled. The first big test of his 10 months of leadership.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

For the first time in 100 years the government will gain a by-election seat from the opposition. On a very solid 6% swing in a suburban representative seat. We‘ll see tomorrow, but this may be the beginning of the end for Dutton’s leadership.