Australia General Discussion 4.0: It ain’t easy under Albanese

[AustralianSwingVoter]

There is quite a lot of support for decriminalisation in Europe, no??

(though it varies from country to country, obviously)

Indeed, likewise in Australia (and the police are even starting to recognise the benefits of gradual decriminalisation). However this inquiry is focused on full legalisation, which remains a relatively fringe position both in Australia and Europe.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

NT Labor has taken a very comfortable victory in the Daly by-election. Thanks to the CLP selecting a candidate who lives 10 hours drive outside the seat the ALP candidate won a hefty 7% swing. Shouldn't read too much into it though after all the total turnout is a measly 3.5k votes.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

People are assuming they'll be Astute class subs, which would be great news for BAE in Barrow and a feather in the cap for the government's "Global Britain" tilt to the Indo-Pacific. French foreign policy analysts are spitting feathers on Twitter.

Seems unlikely, all our foreign policy media are reporting the Defence Department prefer the Virginia Class to the Astute class. The government has generally preferred American contractors to Europeans in recent years. ScoMo also has a desperate need to suck up to Biden so he doesn't get too harsh on our non-existent climate policy.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The focus of Boris in the press conference was "this guarantees jobs here" rather than geostrategic concerns per se.

Which was very odd given we've made it clear that the Nuclear Submarines will be built in Adelaide, just like the cancelled French subs.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Albanese has announced he's completely 1000% in favour of the nuclear subs because of course he has. However he's found the funniest possible target, and is (seriously) calling for the government to promise we won't acquire or develop nuclear weapons!

Speaking as someone on the ground in SA too, a lot of people are pretty uneasy at the prospect of anything nuclear being built in Australia, and particularly here, since Adelaide and many of its suburbs are on a fault line.

If Adelaide is genuinely too concerned with the nuclear subs it's not hard to fix. The government will just propose building them in US dockyards and basing them in Perth and see how long until the Adelaide opposition folds.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Porter's jumped before he was belatedly pushed. The mystery donor saga was the straw that broke the camels back and it now looks all but certain that he'll retire rather than try to recontest the next election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Gladys Berejiklian has resigned as NSW Premier over the continued ICAC investigation into her relationship with Maguire. Just like Barry O'Farrell she's taken the high road and stepped aside following the same ethical standards she's held her ministers to.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/alexhart7/status/1444540952840785920

[AustralianSwingVoter]

You would think this is satire. Or a piss take. But no, this is an officially sanctioned logo from the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet. On the week of Women's Day.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tassie Premier Peter Gutwein has pulled a shock resignation. Sounds very tired, made it clear he's got nothing left in the tank to give after the stress of two years through covid. Deputy moderate Jeremy Rockliff looks best positioned to take the leadership, with conservative Michael Ferguson the likely contender from the minority right faction.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Rockcliff has been rather quietly installed as the next Tassie Premier. Instead there'll be a dogfight for the Deputyship between moderate Elise Archer and conservative Michael Ferguson.  Vote should be held in a couple days.

UPDATE: Vote held early this morning and easily confirmed Ferguson as deputy. Unsurprising as it maintains the ever important factional balance and Archer is far from the most popular person in the party.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

David Speirs was comfortably elected as new SA Liberal leader and just unveiled his shadow cabinet. He’s factionally unaligned and was supported by most of both factions so not much factional implications can be drawn from it. Disgraced ex-Deputy Vickie Chapman has resigned from parliament triggering a by-election in Bragg that should be a comfortable hold for the Libs. Steven Marshall is still under pressure to resign his seat of Dunstan which’d be a considerably trickier race for Libs.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Michael Gunner has issued a shock resignation as NT Chief Minister, apparently over the birth of his second child. I'm not fully across factions inside NT Labor so I wouldn't know who the frontrunners to replace him are.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Michael Gunner has issued a shock resignation as NT Chief Minister, apparently over the birth of his second child. I'm not fully across factions inside NT Labor so I wouldn't know who the frontrunners to replace him are.

Natasha Fyles of the left ended up being elected leader over the right's Nicole Manison. Gossip takes some time to disseminate out of Darwin however it sounds like there's quite an internal brawl inside Territory Labor.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Coalition leadership has been sorted in party room. Libs as expected, Peter Dutton elected unopposed, Sussan Ley elected as deputy unopposed after Karen Andrews, Jane Hume and Bridget Archer withdrew. Meanwhile in the Nationals David Littleproud has toppled Barnaby Joyce (they never release numbers but sounds like it was a solid margin) with Senate Whip Perin Davey unopposed as deputy (she’s completely anonymous prior to now, clearly chosen in the need of gender balance not called Bridget McKenzie.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Callide state by-election is tonight, LNP's Bryson Head clearly victorious with 18 booths in with LNP down about 15% on primaries to One Nation, who didn't run in Callide last election thanks to a deal with the former incumbent Boyce.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Greens national vote is only just above what they got at their peak in 2010.

So its actually their......highest vote ever?

As Charles Richardson of Crikey points out about this result, when the Greens national vote is still basically treading water, and has been electorally for over a decade, what *is* the meaning of "their highest vote ever"?

Their vote is far more effectively distributed so they elected 4 reps instead of one (on far weaker reference flows than 2010 too!)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Possible byelection in Drummoyne with ICAC handing down a corrupt verdict against MP John Sidoti. Yet another problem for Perrottet. South of the Murray IBAC also handed down a very nasty report around Vic Labor. Dan Andrews is squirming as we speak.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Possible byelection in Drummoyne with ICAC handing down a corrupt verdict against MP John Sidoti. Yet another problem for Perrottet. South of the Murray IBAC also handed down a very nasty report around Vic Labor. Dan Andrews is squirming as we speak.

Do you think a hung parliament is a real possibility this fall? The anecdotal evidence and popular narrative indicates that Andrews is seriously endangered, but the ALP still seems to be riding high in the opinion polls.

The disconnect between polling and anecdotal reports is unusual but not unheard of midterm. I expect ALP polling numbers to fall over the next few months in line with where it feels like they should be.
I'd always bet against a hung parliament, the voters have a knack of getting one side or the other across the line. A very narrow Labor majority still seems most likely to me. Something like 52% 2pp and 48 seats (loss of 9 vs notionals) at this stage. Vic Libs are a sh**tshow who aren't ready or able to seize office just yet.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

God knows why but the Opposition has decided the best attack on Albo is fear mongering about Foot and Mouth disease (not to be confused with Foot in Mouth which is already endemic in the Coalition). Dutto wants to shut down the border with Indonesia for reasons other than boats! Meanwhile Barnaby and other backbenchers are going insane on Facebook and Sky insisting this is the meat apocalypse. Wouldn’t be surprised if some wingnut starts arguing it’s a conspiracy by Albo and his green-left vegans to destroy our way of life.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Meanwhile state Liberal parties have decided to copy federal shambles. Here in NSW Perrottet's cabinet has just lost two ministers, his Deputy Ayres to the interminable Barilaro saga and the trainwreck Petinos who's finally bullied too many people (her personal highlight is vomiting in Barilaro's lap after the state of origin. not allegedly either, as she paid for cleaning from her public expenses!). Oh and John Sidoti is still refusing to resign.

Meanwhile in Victoria the berk Matthew Guy, fresh off the opportunity of Labor's corruption findings has gotten himself embroiled in a very murky donations saga which is being referred to IBAC. And he's behaving like a very guilty man.

Oh and the thousand year factional war in South Australia rages on. And on.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Meanwhile state Liberal parties have decided to copy federal shambles. Here in NSW Perrottet's cabinet has just lost two ministers, his Deputy Ayres to the interminable Barilaro saga and the trainwreck Petinos who's finally bullied too many people (her personal highlight is vomiting in Barilaro's lap after the state of origin. not allegedly either, as she paid for cleaning from her public expenses!). Oh and John Sidoti is still refusing to resign.

Meanwhile in Victoria the berk Matthew Guy, fresh off the opportunity of Labor's corruption findings has gotten himself embroiled in a very murky donations saga which is being referred to IBAC. And he's behaving like a very guilty man.

Oh and the thousand year factional war in South Australia rages on. And on.

The Victorian Liberals in general just seem to be unable to get their act together.

Jeff Kennett and it’s consequences have been a disaster for the Victorian Liberals.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Liberal deputy leadership race in NSW looks to have settled into a straight fight between Dave Elliott (centre-right) and Matt Kean (moderate). Kean is obviously the stronger choice with Elliott still reeling from the train strikes. But who knows what the factional powerbrokers will agree to.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Liberal deputy leadership race in NSW looks to have settled into a straight fight between Dave Elliott (centre-right) and Matt Kean (moderate). Kean is obviously the stronger choice with Elliott still reeling from the train strikes. But who knows what the factional powerbrokers will agree to.

Matt Kean elected unopposed as Deputy after Elliott “dropped out” yesterday. The stitch-up tradition lives on.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Liberal deputy leadership race in NSW looks to have settled into a straight fight between Dave Elliott (centre-right) and Matt Kean (moderate). Kean is obviously the stronger choice with Elliott still reeling from the train strikes. But who knows what the factional powerbrokers will agree to.

Matt Kean elected unopposed as Deputy after Elliott “dropped out” yesterday. The stitch-up tradition lives on.

The ride never ends... Dave Elliott is now incredibly salty and has launched a full broadside at Matt Kean. Still grumpy at shouldering blame for the strife with railway unions (he's only the transport minister after all!) he's tried to deflect it to Kean. Publicly.

“It’s very hard for me to look [the unions] in the eye and expect them to believe me after I had the rug pulled out from under my feet last time, but that’s what you get when you send a boy in to do a man’s job.”