Australia General Discussion 4.0: It ain’t easy under Albanese

[AustralianSwingVoter]

State politics news:

In Victoria far-right MLC Moira Deeming has been officially expelled after stupidly threatening to sue the leader and party, thus uniting nearly everyone against her. Party Secretary Renee Heath has also been sacked and demoted to the backbenches for her part in stoking this conflict.

In Tasmania, two Liberal MPs have left the party to the crossbench, depriving the government of majority. They’ve claimed it’s over concerns of lack of consultation for the new AFL stadium, along with opposition to the voice and a power interconnection with Victoria. It’s important to note that both MPs are from the conservative faction, staunch supporters of Ferguson in the leadership battle. So there’s gossip this is a play at forcing a leadership spill.

I can hear the champagne corks popping in the ALP party room.

In Tasmania? They can’t get too far ahead of themselves, they’ve still been polling sub 30% and their factional disputes remain unresolved.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/missrobinson/status/1657187377029185537

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/missrobinson/status/1657187377029185537

Has any TV show done more damage towards political punditry than The West Wing?

The Thick of It?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

How true were the rumours about a snap election?

Snap election where?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

How true were the rumours about a snap election?

Snap election where?

A federal one; I only read a few paragraphs about it but the idea seemed to be that Albo would want to see if he could boost his majority after how good the by-election was.

Oh those absurd articles. Leaving aside the optics of early elections that usually erases poll lead, practically speaking this would mean a House-only election, decoupling the house and senate terms. And we know that senate-only elections never go well for the government.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

No, there absolutely isn't going to be a snap election because of polls FFS

But it makes for a column filling story on a slow news day.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Mark McGowan has resigned as West Australian Premier.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Looking like the byzantine factions of WA Labor have settled on Amber-Jade Sanderson, member for Morley and Minister for Health as the next leader.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Never mind. There’s been some shenanigans behind closed doors, Sanderson has pulled out and the Labor veteran Roger Cook has finally got his shot at Leader. He’s been Deputy Leader since he was first elected to Parliament in 2008 for Kwinana at the Labor defeat. He’s served as Deputy to Eric Ripper then McGowan. He formed a joint ticket with contender Rita Saffioti, a McGowan loyalist, to serve as Deputy.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Down in Victoria backbench conservative stalwart Ryan Smith has resigned. This triggers a by-election in the blue ribbon outer suburban seat of Warrandyte, held on a margin of 4.2%. This’ll be a major challenge for Pesutto’s leadership, already weakened by the Moira Deeming mess. A loss to Labor may trigger an immediate spill.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Down in Victoria backbench conservative stalwart Ryan Smith has resigned. This triggers a by-election in the blue ribbon outer suburban seat of Warrandyte, held on a margin of 4.2%. This’ll be a major challenge for Pesutto’s leadership, already weakened by the Moira Deeming mess. A loss to Labor may trigger an immediate spill.

Can someone tell my why the Victorian Liberals can't stop digging themselves deeper?

Jeff Kennett casts a long shadow they’re yet to escape from. His ghosts and spectres still haunt the party.

https://twitter.com/CaseyBriggs/status/1642101733836099584

[AustralianSwingVoter]

NT Labor member for Blain Mark Turner has been formally expelled and disendorsed over the continuing fallout from his “cocaine sex scandal” that was far blander than it sounded. (TL;DR a married man had an affair with a married woman who did cocaine. he’s in the sh**t cuz he lied about it)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The cycle of life for Australian independent politicians

Get elected on a free people pleasing policies, often because the main parties decided to choose a plank of wood
=>

Confuse your local celebrity/rentagob status as "beloved cult leader"

=>

"Hey people love me, I can take my brand national!!!"

=>

Create vanity party named after yourself

=>

Shock poll, as your shell party with no policies randomly is competitive with the majors in your state!

=>

First press scrutiny in your life outside of friendly client local media

=>

RIP

Let’s be fair here, Lambie and Katter both succeeded through press scrutiny and now have strong voter bases that have transferred over to other candidates. Xenophon also got very close to a major electoral breakthrough before some sheer bad luck in SA 2018.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Dutton's attempts to nail Katy Gallagher over Brittany Higgins have backfired so spectacularly they've uncovered an anonymous backbench senator groped Amanda Stoker. How is it even possible to fck something up this badly.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

South Australian MHA for MacKillop, Nick McBride, has left the Liberal party to join the crossbench. Give it a few weeks and whatever factional nonsense triggered it will get to the papers. Given his seat he shouldn’t have any problems with re-election. A new problem for the SA Liberals!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The LNP has retained the seat of Fadden on a 4% swing. An expected solid (but not outstanding result) from heartland Coalition country.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Apparently the ALP had to be rather pressed into standing a candidate at all.

The precedent of standing candidates in uncompetitive by-elections is long, storied and muddled. Governments more often skip them than oppositions, different state parties do it differently and local branches can swing the decision.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Rockingham by-election results are in, Labor’s primary vote down 33%… from 82% to 49% lol. Liberals however didn’t reap the benefits, instead an ex-Labor local councillor (the usual pre-selection dispute) drew near level with the Liberals and looks to comfortably leapfrog them on preferences. It’ll be a few days till counts are realigned, but the rough estimates are Labor 59% 2pp.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Rockingham by-election results are in, Labor’s primary vote down 33%… from 82% to 49% lol. Liberals however didn’t reap the benefits, instead an ex-Labor local councillor (the usual pre-selection dispute) drew near level with the Liberals and looks to comfortably leapfrog them on preferences. It’ll be a few days till counts are realigned, but the rough estimates are Labor 59% 2pp.

Mark certainly went out on a high.

Roger Cook shouldn’t be having any problems on this result though. 67% 2pp in Rockingham leaves Labor in a very solid position statewide. And the Liberals stuck on 17% primary and likely third on preferences is pretty abysmal.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Pauline Hanson has sacked Mark Latham as One Nation leader in NSW. Various reasons given include electoral performance, a poor relationship with the media, and the misuse of funds (lack thereof). He’s currently facing a defamation case over homophobic comments against a fellow MP (which even Hanson felt the need to publicly condemn).

Seems to be a power trip from Pauline Hanson and the federal executive. Australian minor parties can have very vicious infighting due to the requirements for seperate state parties and a national executive, which can get rather cliquey.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Seems to be a power trip from Pauline Hanson and the federal executive. Australian minor parties can have very vicious infighting due to the requirements for seperate state parties and a national executive, which can get rather cliquey.

One Nation are exceptional even by that standard. Of the 35 members elected/appointed, 20 left the party during their term, often very early in it.

That is positively UKIPpy.

And of the 15 remaining, 8 are incumbents who merely haven’t defected yet

[AustralianSwingVoter]

And of the 15 remaining, 8 are incumbents who merely haven’t defected yet

If this escalates it’s not inconceivable another 3 will join that list, as Latham remains One Nation leader in the NSW Parliament and will presumably count on the loyalty of the other 2 MPs if he quit/got expelled. He’s there till 2031, the other 2 till 2027.

We can add 2 to the list! Latham and his lackey Rod Roberts have officially left Pauline Hanson’s One Nation over allegedly "defrauding NSW electoral funds" to the tune of $270,000 and would not be associated with a political party that acts "without morals”. They will become Independent crossbenchers and it’s unclear if Latham intends to form his own micro party. Labor defector Tania Mihailuk so far seems to have stuck with Pauline.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Dan Andrews has resigned as Victorian premier effective tomorrow. Jacinta Allen presumptive frontrunner to replace him.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The pointlessly fumbled yes campaign does not make me feel confident that Labor knows how to appeal to everyday voters under their current leadership. If the Coalition and others can find an even illusionary cogent appeal to the public, they could easily win against this kind of incompetence. They saw the right weaknesses and took advantage of them. I really feel awful for first peoples right now. They are suffering a new undeniable public rejection. This government has somehow achieved precisely the opposite of its own short term policy goal with this referendum.

In fairness, this was not at all a Labor campaign. The Yes campaign was driven by Aboriginal leaders and activists, with Labor strategists taking a back seat. Their (naïve) commitment to a positive campaign exemplified this.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Meclazine try to not ruin an Australian thread challenge (literally impossible, not clickbait)