Control of Congressional Redistricting as of 2018 elections

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned. 

Maybe I should send these to Gov. Hogan

Hogan is basically irrelevant in this process.  Dems have supermajorities to override his veto.

Actually he is very relavent
All he has to do is push a black friendly map and black legilsators will stab white democrats so there are more black majority districts.

It's already pretty black friendly.  Under the current map, a black would win MD-05 if open in addition to the two seats they already have.

Hogan could push for 4 black friendly seats and 1 white dem seat 1 Lean R and 2 Safe R and the black legislators would stab the whites in the back to get that extra seat.

That would be impossible and also breaks the VRA. The best MD Black Dems can hope for is the 2 VRA required black majority seats (1 each in Baltimore and DC suburbs) and 1 majority minority seat in the DC suburbs.
4 black seats is impossible.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Three black seats is the most you can possibly draw,  one in Baltimore and two in the Prince Georges area.   4 would require plurality seats which the VRA most likely wouldn't permit.

VRA courts  would absolutely permit a black plurality seat of like 45% in Maryland.
that would almost certainly elect a black in somewhere like Maryland unlike MS.

No, it's not the general to worry about, it's the primary.
Yes, a 40% black district would elect a democrat. But would a black democrat get through the primary? Probably not.

Also, we're not talking 45% black seats. With tortured borders you could *maybe* get 4 seats more than 40% African-American. Maybe.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Yes, a 40% black district would elect a democrat. But would a black democrat get through the primary? Probably not.

That is highly likely. If you didn't notice, Black Democrats just got elected in quite a few seats with much, much smaller African American populations such as NY-19, GA-06, IL-14, TX-32, and CO-02.

So yes, a Black Democrat would have a great chance at winning a Democratic primary. That doesn't mean a Black Democrat would be guaranteed to win, but that is never the case. Ask Bill Jefferson of Louisiana. If they didn't win, it would almost certainly be because there was something wrong with their candidacy, not solely because they are black.

The question is whether the courts would see the same way, that a 40-45% black district can be thought of as likely to elect a black congressman.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Blacks would actually be over represented with 4 seats anyway.  Maryland is only 32% Black and 4 seats would be 50% of the delegation.

the point isn't to over represent blacks for the sake of the VRA but to get black dems to back stab white dems.

They wouldn't do that though. The MD dems are more competent and unified with redistricting.
And don't forget legislative redistricting. That is another concern for everyone involved.
Basically, Hogan isn't splitting off enough black dems in a month of sundays.