Cities vs. rest of county (user search)
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  Cities vs. rest of county (search mode)
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Author Topic: Cities vs. rest of county  (Read 26401 times)
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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Junior Chimp
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« on: November 16, 2020, 04:34:21 PM »

Interesting Multonomah county suburbs went more Republican than Washington County, any reason why?  Even with Clackamas County, pretty sure Trump got under 40% if you take only the suburban parts as he likely won big in the rural parts thus why overall numbers at 43%.

This is probably the norm. Multnomah County suburbs are basically just Gresham--which is pretty WWC and far from Downtown. By contrast, Beaverton/Tigard/Bethany are super educated and actually much closer to the urban core.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,835
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« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2020, 03:55:29 PM »

For King County, again may change slightly but still good indication percentage wise.  Since numbers not final, just gave percentages.  Looks like Seattle might be in the running for most Democratic city as has beaten out San Francisco and Boston and likely New York City.  Mind you one of the more well to do, quite educated so somewhat makes sense.  Washington DC is more Democratic and Detroit probably is too (large African-American), but ranks up there.

Seattle:

Biden: 89.5%
Trump: 8%

Rest of King County

Biden: 69.1%
Trump: 27.6%

East end which was once solidly Republican is where GOP floor has fallen through.  Not surprising as large tech sector, large number of well to do college educated residents.

Biden:


Affluent suburban Republicanism has collapsed (and Trump is a terrible fit for Mercer Island, Bellevue etc) and Seattle is one of the most left-wing cities in America.

That's very true, but these internal swings are very interesting. We always talk about Orange/Loudon/Gwinnett because you can see their color change on a map, but the swing in Eastside King County is even more dramatic. Iirc, this area (which could really be its own county) swung something like 50 points left since 2000, which dwarfs swings literally anywhere else on the West Coast. 
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,835
United States


« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2020, 12:35:47 AM »

At the MSA level, Dallas was D+0 and Houston was D+1. Which is actually a really big deal because for the first time ever, Republicans are only netting votes from rural areas as the cities more than cancel out all their suburbs and exurbs.

Add another decade of growth and the TXGOP is in a really bad place because there is no growing part of the state where they can actually net new votes to offset the metro areas cancelling out an ever-increasing share of the rurals. Basically, Texas is lagging Georgia by ~8-12 years (look back to when Atlanta flipped even as the GOP maxed the rurals.) The RGV weirdness aside, Texas is heading in one very obvious political direction. Metropolitan growth is destiny.
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