What does your 2024 map look like right now?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Harris/Cooper (D) defeats Pence/Cotton (R)

Going against the conventional wisdom of midterm losses for the incumbent party, Democrats gain in the House and narrowly flip the Senate in 2022, as Biden is able to effectively blame the lack of legislative action on McConnell. Biden announces in the days afterwards that he "was always a transitional President" and "will not seek re-election in 2024". Biden endorses Harris, who becomes the nominee. Harris selects Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina as her running mate, and narrowly flips North Carolina and Florida while hanging on to all the states Biden won in 2020.

Pence is nominated by the Republicans in a field featuring Nikki Haley, Tom Cotton and Charlie Baker. Though Baker led most polling against Harris, he is deemed to be insufficiently conservative by GOP primary voters. Pence selects Cotton as his running mate. Texas is decided by less than 3% in Pence's favor, continuing its slow trend towards Democrats.

INJECT THIS TIMELINE INTO MY VEINS!

Fwiw this timeline is exactly what I see happening minus Florida.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Gun to my head, no tossups?

Harris/Cooper (D) defeat Pence/Haley (R)