NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

What's with the freaking stained-glass look of the precinct winner map in SW Queens?

Not a very residential area=weirdly unpopulated precincts=chaotic map.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm actually feeling better about this race the more I think about it.
1. In 4/5 boroughs, Garcia+Wiley>Adams
2. 20% of the vote is mail-in, and Adams will be weak there
3. More of the Bronx is in than Manhattan
4. Assuming 10% exhaustion, not-Adams still has twice as many votes as Adams. Am I really to believe that 1/3 of Wiley/Yang/Garcia-ers will rank Adams over Wiley or Garcia.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm actually feeling better about this race the more I think about it.
1. In 4/5 boroughs, Garcia+Wiley>Adams
2. 20% of the vote is mail-in, and Adams will be weak there
3. More of the Bronx is in than Manhattan
4. Assuming 10% exhaustion, not-Adams still has twice as many votes as Adams. Am I really to believe that 1/3 of Wiley/Yang/Garcia-ers will rank Adams over Wiley or Garcia.

This is not that unlikely IMO. Adams will win a significant share of Yang's support, as he'll be getting close to 100% of his Orthodox voters' second preferences.

That's like 4% of the total electorate.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm actually feeling better about this race the more I think about it.
1. In 4/5 boroughs, Garcia+Wiley>Adams
2. 20% of the vote is mail-in, and Adams will be weak there
3. More of the Bronx is in than Manhattan
4. Assuming 10% exhaustion, not-Adams still has twice as many votes as Adams. Am I really to believe that 1/3 of Wiley/Yang/Garcia-ers will rank Adams over Wiley or Garcia.

I want to believe but it sounds like copium to me

You should know by now that doomerism or bloomerism doesn't really motivate me. I just think this is gonna be very, very close to 50/50 when it's all done.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm actually feeling better about this race the more I think about it.
1. In 4/5 boroughs, Garcia+Wiley>Adams
2. 20% of the vote is mail-in, and Adams will be weak there
3. More of the Bronx is in than Manhattan
4. Assuming 10% exhaustion, not-Adams still has twice as many votes as Adams. Am I really to believe that 1/3 of Wiley/Yang/Garcia-ers will rank Adams over Wiley or Garcia.

I want to believe but it sounds like copium to me

You were saying...?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Garcia by 1, calling it now.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Garcia by 1, calling it now.

one vote or one percent? I hope she wins.

Percent.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Does anyone have the final round numbers by borough? I'd imagine Garcia won Manhattan and maybe even Staten?

I expect so. Plausibly Queens--even though she came in fourth in the first round. I'm very curious about that.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Hoping Adams pulls it out over Garcia.

Ideally, Wiley, but fewer Garcia fans ranked her than the inverse. Stay classy, Garcia fans.

Regretting your support for a candidate because of what demographics supported them and how preferences flow is pretty absurd, especially when you consider who the opposition is.

I will still support whoever is the nominee, but I despise the gentrification of Manhattan and those downtown areas of Brooklyn. It's clear to me that Adams followed by Wiley was most popular in the real New York. If all the gentrifiers supported Garcia, there must be a reason for that, she must not be interested in fixing the housing crisis.

You get that--for better or worse--nobody has a bigger vested interest in making New York more affordable than Manhattan renters, right? The opposite applies to outer borough homeowners regardless of class.

Although if you really wish you based your vote on whoever got the fewest first prefs in Chelsea, Yang was your guy.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Crushing.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Rob Ford 2.0 it is...

Blegh.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

DAVE IS VINDICATED!!!

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1412542605322293255?s=21

You say that like it's a good thing...

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Well, at least SOMEONE showed up tonight for the Dems! Maybe he's the future of the Democratic Party after all...

Can we please stop pretending that one of the most corrupt and cynical politicians in the modern Democratic party is the future of the American left because he received the backing of the entire New York political machine and managed to defeat an unknown technocrat by 1% of the vote in the Democratic primary?

The fact that this guy who was--on paper--more favored than any other candidate in the race and scraped through a primary by saying a couple correct things on policing and crime does not mean he's some political genius uniquely capable of generating a permanent majority for the Democratic party. It's NYC. Winning the general doesn't count as an accomplishment.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Serious question: do these elections still operate under the month-long counting process that haunted NY in 2020? Cause there's a good number of mayoral and commissioner races in outlying counties that are uncallible if so.

EDIT: Yes change this NY

https://twitter.com/SR_spatial/status/1455736792842448901?s=20

 Wait a minute. DE blazio actually lost the upper East Side 8 years ago??!?

Yeah, but it was a mayoral election against notoriously sane Joe Lhota. And Bloomy obviously won all that territory the three previous elections. No big deal.