CA-UC Berkeley: Biden +39

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D! 

This is such a dumb post. Biden is not particularly strong (for a democrat) in California, and is likely only winning by this outsized margin due to his 8-10 point lead nationally, which if you have seen recent polling, is translating into swing states.

Or is Biden winning by 8-10 pts nationally due to an outsize (+39!) lead in California?  With California being >10% of the national population, the difference really is impossible to identify.  Polling indicates that Biden's leads in swing states (MI, FL, PA, NC, etc.) average smaller than his lead in national polls.  There is no national election for president.   

I don't see how it's controversial to note that Biden expanding his lead (greatly!, at least over the 2016 result) in a Titanium D state like California translates to him being in a better position to win the electoral college.  Somehow red avatars thought by post was somehow about Texas?  lol

Yeah. These states were right of the nation in 2016 and they almost certainly will be in 2020 as well. However, I don't think you can reasonably conclude that a 70-30 Biden win in California wouldn't also indicate nationwide gains among whatever demographics are propelling him to that in CA. And I think you know that.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D!  

This is such a dumb post. Biden is not particularly strong (for a democrat) in California, and is likely only winning by this outsized margin due to his 8-10 point lead nationally, which if you have seen recent polling, is translating into swing states.

Or is Biden winning by 8-10 pts nationally due to an outsize (+39!) lead in California?  With California being >10% of the national population, the difference really is impossible to identify.  Polling indicates that Biden's leads in swing states (MI, FL, PA, NC, etc.) average smaller than his lead in national polls.  There is no national election for president.    

I don't see how it's controversial to note that Biden expanding his lead (greatly!, at least over the 2016 result) in a Titanium D state like California translates to him being in a better position to win the electoral college.  Somehow red avatars thought by post was somehow about Texas?  lol

Yeah. These states were right of the nation in 2016 and they almost certainly will be in 2020 as well. However, I don't think you can reasonably conclude that a 70-30 Biden win in California wouldn't also indicate nationwide gains among whatever demographics are propelling him to that in CA. And I think you know that.

That’s right, because there’s no local or otherwise idiosyncratic factors that could be driving Biden’s margin in a non-contested, super safe state of 40M that aren’t perfectly exportable to any suburb in the country.  

Let’s watch the congratulatory tones continue.  

You seriously think Biden could gain eight points in California and zero in swing states? Universal swing isn't a thing but neither is completely isolated swing. Besides, if Biden gained eight points in California, that explains gaining about one point nationwide. It seems pretty damn clear that Biden is up by more than one point over Clinton 2016.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D! 

This is such a dumb post. Biden is not particularly strong (for a democrat) in California, and is likely only winning by this outsized margin due to his 8-10 point lead nationally, which if you have seen recent polling, is translating into swing states.

Or is Biden winning by 8-10 pts nationally due to an outsize (+39!) lead in California?  With California being >10% of the national population, the difference really is impossible to identify.  Polling indicates that Biden's leads in swing states (MI, FL, PA, NC, etc.) average smaller than his lead in national polls.  There is no national election for president.   

I don't see how it's controversial to note that Biden expanding his lead (greatly!, at least over the 2016 result) in a Titanium D state like California translates to him being in a better position to win the electoral college.  Somehow red avatars thought by post was somehow about Texas?  lol

Yeah. These states were right of the nation in 2016 and they almost certainly will be in 2020 as well. However, I don't think you can reasonably conclude that a 70-30 Biden win in California wouldn't also indicate nationwide gains among whatever demographics are propelling him to that in CA. And I think you know that.

That’s right, because there’s no local or otherwise idiosyncratic factors that could be driving Biden’s margin in a non-contested, super safe state of 40M that aren’t perfectly exportable to any suburb in the country. 

Let’s watch the congratulatory tones continue. 

Even ignoring this demographically-ignorant take, where else do you think Biden is gaining? It is an objective fact that Biden is currently outperforming HRC by more than 1% nationally. It is also an objective fact that should Biden win California by the margin shown in this poll, he increases his national vote share over HRC '16 by 1%. Therefore it is inarguable that Biden is gaining on HRC '16 in more places than just California and one can logically assume that the demographics he is gaining the most with in CA are the same demographics he is improving with in other states.