2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is it worth to cut up San Francisco to make another Asian district at around 45%? Or is that too gruesome?

It's not worth it. SF is just too obvious of a COI. You can strategically cut the city to make an Asian opportunity district based in San Mateo, though. Just try and get two Asian plurality seats in Santa Clara and one in Los Angeles. Bonus points for one in Orange as well.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's what I've been playing with--the tricky thing then is that it requires a massive chop of Kern, but that seems ok?

The chop of Kern isn't a problem at all and something like it is usually demanded for VRA purposes. Some of your other lines, however, are a bit wacky.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's what I've been playing with--the tricky thing then is that it requires a massive chop of Kern, but that seems ok?

The chop of Kern isn't a problem at all and something like it is usually demanded for VRA purposes. Some of your other lines, however, are a bit wacky.

Just to clarify--wrt: Kern I'm not talking about the split of Bakersfield, but slicing off the eastern and southern portions.

Which lines do you have an issue with, btw? I'm not a huge fan of my 18/21 line of course (though it's probably necessary for the VRA?) and the split of Santa Barbara is cruddy but probably necessary to avoid bad outcomes in the East Bay (and partly an effect of dumb precinct shapes).

Okay. There's nothing wrong with a tri-cut of Kern in principle--the part in the Mojave may as well be another county anyway--but I do find cutting the areas west of Mojave (Tehachapi, Maricopa, Taft, etc.) pretty awkward. Ideally, you'd move those into either CA-22 or CA-23. However, once you get into drawing Southern California, I think you may regret the tri-chop of Kern--not on fairness grounds, but because there's usually a half-district of population left over in the Antelope/Victor Valleys.

My biggest issues are with the Sacramento/Tahoe areas. Connecting Yolo County over to south/east Sacramento County is just awkward--especially since you can fit a suburban district in Sacramento County alone. Personally, I favor putting Yolo (and Colusa and Glenn) in with CA-01, giving Siskiyou to CA-02, and keeping all of Solano together.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's what I've been playing with--the tricky thing then is that it requires a massive chop of Kern, but that seems ok?

The chop of Kern isn't a problem at all and something like it is usually demanded for VRA purposes. Some of your other lines, however, are a bit wacky.

Just to clarify--wrt: Kern I'm not talking about the split of Bakersfield, but slicing off the eastern and southern portions.

Which lines do you have an issue with, btw? I'm not a huge fan of my 18/21 line of course (though it's probably necessary for the VRA?) and the split of Santa Barbara is cruddy but probably necessary to avoid bad outcomes in the East Bay (and partly an effect of dumb precinct shapes).

Okay. There's nothing wrong with a tri-cut of Kern in principle--the part in the Mojave may as well be another county anyway--but I do find cutting the areas west of Mojave (Tehachapi, Maricopa, Taft, etc.) pretty awkward. Ideally, you'd move those into either CA-22 or CA-23. However, once you get into drawing Southern California, I think you may regret the tri-chop of Kern--not on fairness grounds, but because there's usually a half-district of population left over in the Antelope/Victor Valleys.

My biggest issues are with the Sacramento/Tahoe areas. Connecting Yolo County over to south/east Sacramento County is just awkward--especially since you can fit a suburban district in Sacramento County alone. Personally, I favor putting Yolo (and Colusa and Glenn) in with CA-01, giving Siskiyou to CA-02, and keeping all of Solano together.

Can that coincide with including West Sacramento in with Sacramento? It seems like a no-brainer to put the two together on CoI grounds.

Yes it can and you absolutely should do that. Especially since the rest of Yolo is disconnected and not really a part of metro Sacramento at all. Start by drawing six districts (North Coast-Yolo, Marin/Sonoma, Shasta-Sacramento Valley, City of Sacramento, Sacramento Suburbs, Sacramento Exurbs/Tahoe.) These should be easy to lock down because you'll never need them to trade population if you reconfigure the Bay/Central Valley/Southern California.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's what I've been playing with--the tricky thing then is that it requires a massive chop of Kern, but that seems ok?

The chop of Kern isn't a problem at all and something like it is usually demanded for VRA purposes. Some of your other lines, however, are a bit wacky.

Just to clarify--wrt: Kern I'm not talking about the split of Bakersfield, but slicing off the eastern and southern portions.

Which lines do you have an issue with, btw? I'm not a huge fan of my 18/21 line of course (though it's probably necessary for the VRA?) and the split of Santa Barbara is cruddy but probably necessary to avoid bad outcomes in the East Bay (and partly an effect of dumb precinct shapes).

Okay. There's nothing wrong with a tri-cut of Kern in principle--the part in the Mojave may as well be another county anyway--but I do find cutting the areas west of Mojave (Tehachapi, Maricopa, Taft, etc.) pretty awkward. Ideally, you'd move those into either CA-22 or CA-23. However, once you get into drawing Southern California, I think you may regret the tri-chop of Kern--not on fairness grounds, but because there's usually a half-district of population left over in the Antelope/Victor Valleys.

My biggest issues are with the Sacramento/Tahoe areas. Connecting Yolo County over to south/east Sacramento County is just awkward--especially since you can fit a suburban district in Sacramento County alone. Personally, I favor putting Yolo (and Colusa and Glenn) in with CA-01, giving Siskiyou to CA-02, and keeping all of Solano together.

Can that coincide with including West Sacramento in with Sacramento? It seems like a no-brainer to put the two together on CoI grounds.

Yes it can and you absolutely should do that. Especially since the rest of Yolo is disconnected and not really a part of metro Sacramento at all. Start by drawing six districts (North Coast-Yolo, Marin/Sonoma, Shasta-Sacramento Valley, City of Sacramento, Sacramento Suburbs, Sacramento Exurbs/Tahoe.) These should be easy to lock down because you'll never need them to trade population if you reconfigure the Bay/Central Valley/Southern California.

The North Coast+Yolo/Glenn/Colusa but without West Sacramento is pretty short on people, even if you add Siskiyou and the overflow from Sonoma.

Add Napa and Lake, then play around with the margins. For example, you can add Vacaville/Dixon and drop American Canyon for a perfect district. You can also push further into the Central Valley or try something with Vallejo.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Gotta say, having played with it--I don't think this makes sense. The North Coast is isolated enough that it has to go with an area which is fairly different--but that configuration basically forces you to deeply chop up the Northern Central Valley when it can easily fit in one seat.

Does it though?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Opinions?

-The North Coast-Sacramento Valley district is totally unacceptable.
-Inyo-Mono-Tahoe-Gold Country is not acceptable. Look at mountains and road connectivity, not just compactness.
-OC and LA look messy but you need to post a zoom in with background map turned on. Santa Clarita-Santa Barbara is just kinda weird.
-VRA stats???

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

FYI Abdullah, this is basically the only functional way to do Far Northern California: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bc21ff91-095c-4160-a357-faf53da60d8b

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

"There are roads there" is true in a literal sense, I suppose, but there are no crossings of the Sierra Nevada that are open in winter between the Carson Pass in Alpine County and the Walker Pass in Kern County. Note that this means that connecting through Yosemite is not fine; the Tioga Pass, which connects the main portion of the park to the eastern entrance, is not open during the winter. Maybe you can make that connection in a sled, but you can't in a car.

By contrast, US 395, the main road through Inyo and Mono, is well-traveled all year and connects to points southward without having to go over mountains. This is why, for example, AAA assigns those two counties to its Southern California branch rather than its Northern California branch, despite their being geographically northern. This is also why Mammoth Mountain Ski Area in Mono County serves a clientele almost exclusively from Southern California, where it does almost all of its marketing; if you're coming from Northern California in the winter, you can't get there unless you fly. Mammoth Lakes has a Vons (Southern California) rather than a Safeway (Northern California). All the connections in the part of California east of the Sierra Nevada are to the south, and it's lazy to assert that the mere presence of roads that are sometimes open makes it acceptable to cross the mountains.

But the map he drew covers the Carson Pass, so you are making no argument whatsoever. There is as much of a connection at the northern end as at the southern end. It's true that you shouldn't directly connect Mammoth Lakes to Fresno without some other counties in the district (for example, for the State Assembly). But no one is proposing that. Instead, the choice is whether to connect the Inyo-Mono complex across the northern crossing or the southern crossing. And both are equally valid, and nothing you've said indicates otherwise.

The hyperbole on where to put Inyo and Mono is completely unwarranted. They don't fit well geographically or culturally with anywhere that isn't Nevada, so you just have to choose a road connection and put them somewhere.

No, it actually doesn't mean that those two options are equally valid. Highway 88, which crosses the Carson Pass, is a winding mountain road with minimal human settlement around it aside from one ski resort. That lack of human settlement might have to do with its crossing an 8500-foot pass, which is not something that people tend to do on a regular basis. By contrast, Highway 395 is the main thoroughfare for the movement of goods and people east of the Sierras, as you would notice from the volume of truck traffic if you were to travel that route. The idea that those two connections are the same is obviously silly.

Now, you could claim that road connectivity doesn't matter at all in California. Some evidence here would be that the state senate district that contains Mono and Inyo does not contain any part of either Alpine or Kern, meaning that there are no road connections at all between that part of the district and the Central Valley portion. That's an argument that I wouldn't be able to refute, because it's self-evidently correct, but it's not the argument you're making.

Well, you refute your own point again because the map goes up to US-50, which is just as much of a major highway as US-395. Also, US-395 doesn't connect to San Bernardino directly, and most maps that connect Inyo to San Bernardino don't cut into Kern, so if you're making a road connectivity argument (note that you started that argument by talking about mountain passes, not me), there is more connectivity across Alpine to El Dorado than Inyo to San Bernardino. Finally, I'm not sure how you can argue with a straight face that the open desert in places like, I don't know, right here or around here, are more covered by "human settlement" than mountain crossings.

A great vista of human settlement, for reference.

Continuous human settlement might be a bit of an awkward way to characterize anything in that part of the world, but you can absolutely describe areas by the strength of their "corridors."

A human disturbance index of traffic, commerce, gas stations, truck stops, utility corridors etc. overwhelmingly points to 395 as the way to go. And Xahar is just correct that 395 from Mojave and Victorville through Ridgecrest, Lone Pine, Bishop, Mammoth, Lee Vining, etc. is just a contiguous axis of (sparse, desert-tier) commerce from Los Angeles to Reno. His point about Mammoth being Southern California is true--and this extends other facets of life that have bound this region towards LA for a century.  And sure, US-50 is a major highway but the connections between it and the 395 corridor *without going through the State of Nevada* are really, really shaky. The Tahoe area and the Eastern Sierras are really quite cut off.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

the tendency of affluent historically Republican suburbs to go back to their roots, as seen in Orange County last year.

Huh?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

the tendency of affluent historically Republican suburbs to go back to their roots, as seen in Orange County last year.

Huh?

Steele and Kim, no?

Affluent, historically Republican suburbs in OC are in Steel, Porter, and Levin's districts. North/West OC are quite working class. In the specific case of Kim, her victory was driven by middle class and working class Asian voters splitting their ballots Biden/Kim. Steel perhaps fits Sol's case better, but that went from a ultra-close Rouda win to an ultra-close Rouda loss. I wouldn't read too much into it.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Does anyone know what seat was cut?

Basically Karen Bass and Maxine Waters got merged, but I imagine there are double-bunkings and open seats elsewhere that I haven't yet picked up on.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

What happens to Garcia, Porter, and Levin?

Garcia: Biden+10 -> Biden+12
Porter: Biden+11 -> Biden+14
Levin: Biden+13 -> Biden+11

Porter and Levin should be good. Levin moving right moves Issa left.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

Fascinating. What about CA-51?

The vomit-inducing monstrosity they came up with going from Chula Vista to Needles?

Biden+36 -> Biden+21. That's the other thing flipping Issa.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

What happens to Garcia, Porter, and Levin?

Garcia: Biden+10 -> Biden+12
Porter: Biden+11 -> Biden+13
Levin: Biden+13 -> Biden+11

Porter and Levin should be good. Levin moving right moves Issa left.

Am I correct that West Garden Grove is in CA-48 and Rancho Santa Margarita is in CA-42?

You can read a map as well as me. It's repulsive, no?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

Fascinating. What about CA-51?

The vomit-inducing monstrosity they came up with going from Chula Vista to Needles?

Biden+36 -> Biden+21. That's the other thing flipping Issa.

Ah, just as I suspected. East County is just not large enough to really push it into the R column, far from enough.  And at least a very large minority, perhaps a majority, of the people in it are probably still in urban San Diego County.

Yeah. Chula Vista/Otay Mesa/etc is getting close to half the district.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

Fascinating. What about CA-51?

The vomit-inducing monstrosity they came up with going from Chula Vista to Needles?

Biden+36 -> Biden+21. That's the other thing flipping Issa.

Ah, just as I suspected. East County is just not large enough to really push it into the R column, far from enough.  And at least a very large minority, perhaps a majority, of the people in it are probably still in urban San Diego County.

Yeah. Chula Vista/Otay Mesa/etc is getting close to half the district.

What is the partisan lean for CA-10 and where would Garamendi run and what would the partisan lean of his seat be?

CA-10 becomes Trump+1 per Wasserman and I honestly think Garamendi is due to retire, being 76 and all.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't like how SLO County is being split.

If SLO is to be split at all (and not doing so has big implications for Monterey/Santa Cruz/Santa Clara and Ventura/Los Angeles), Cuesta Grade is certainly the best possible place to do it. Don't you agree?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Harder is the rep I don't really find a district for in the current draft map.

I'd look at McNerney as a retirement prospect and anticipate Harder running there.