Super Tuesday Results Thread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Tornadoes in West Texas! Dems in dissaray.

Edit: Sh*t. But actually...

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Just inserting the obligatory healthcare professional message (particularly for my California friends) --

Anybody going out to vote today, please please make sure to follow basic and common-sense hygiene practices:  

- Wash your hands before and after handling voting slips, machines, etc.

- Cough/sneeze into your arm rather than your hand.  

- Refrain from touching your mouth or your face.  

The hero we need, not the one we deserve.

No hero, just doing my job

Don't underrate yourself

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't know what's to get excited this Day. Sanders will lose in a landslide. He will be at least 3 Million behind Biden in the Popular Vote and 150 Delegates behind.

Yeah. That's exciting!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So, is there any #RainInNOVA today?

Been in DC and Arlington today. Minor sprinkles, but not really. Can't speak to Fairfax and Loudoun.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Damn, I hate the time shift between Europe and America. Will only learn the results tomorrow early in the morning.

Living on the West Coast is actually pretty great.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Damn, I hate the time shift between Europe and America. Will only learn the results tomorrow early in the morning.

Living on the West Coast is actually pretty great.

Only if you are living in the Pacific Northwest , or San Diego


LA and San Fran are way to expensive to live in

SF yes. LA (minus a few super-elite areas) is actually on par with Portland, Seattle, and San Diego.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Damn, I hate the time shift between Europe and America. Will only learn the results tomorrow early in the morning.

Living on the West Coast is actually pretty great.

Only if you are living in the Pacific Northwest , or San Diego


LA and San Fran are way to expensive to live in

SF yes. LA (minus a few super-elite areas) is actually on par with Portland, Seattle, and San Diego.

You said you used to live in Oregon , which parts . Was it Bend given you know a lot about that area and you said you thought Mt Bachelor > Mt Hood

Nah. Mid-Willamette Valley. South of Salem.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Damn, I hate the time shift between Europe and America. Will only learn the results tomorrow early in the morning.

Living on the West Coast is actually pretty great.

Only if you are living in the Pacific Northwest , or San Diego


LA and San Fran are way to expensive to live in

Seattle is becoming too expensive for most to live in as well.

And why do you think that is so?

I'll give you a hint: It's a six-letter word, and it's not Bernie.

NIMBYS
(yeah, yeah; I know you think it's Amazon)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Virginia is such an FF state!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Hey Atlas progressives, as an uncompromising neoliberal and establishment shill, do not lose all hope. Tonight has shown that America has overwhelmingly rejected Bernie Sanders as a human nobody likes, and that Ameroca is not willing to accept uncompromising, divisive, socialist radicals woth a savior mentality. Next time instead of going for a purist star, go for a progressive (not socialist) workhorse with strong policy as well as strong rhetoric. There are plenty of choices. But you will lose if you go as left as Sanders (focus on builind a winning coalition around a few key issues) and embrace the unifying Buttigeig approach to politics instead of the losing Sanders strategy. Best wishes, even though I hope you keep losing.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Hey Atlas progressives, as an uncompromising neoliberal and establishment shill, do not lose all hope. Tonight has shown that America has overwhelmingly rejected Bernie Sanders as a human nobody likes, and that Ameroca is not willing to accept uncompromising, divisive, socialist radicals woth a savior mentality. Next time instead of going for a purist star, go for a progressive (not socialist) workhorse with strong policy as well as strong rhetoric. There are plenty of choices. But you will lose if you go as left as Sanders (focus on builind a winning coalition around a few key issues) and embrace the unifying Buttigeig approach to politics instead of the losing Sanders strategy. Best wishes, even though I hope you keep losing.

We don't want you.

Sorry. My point still stands. If you want to win, you have to focus on key issues you can win on (M4A with a budget, a more efficint GND) and be able to convince most Americans they are workable. That is not impossible, but you have to embrace a different style of politics and drop the less popular agenda items.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So I’m going to admit as a Bernie supporter that tonight is sobering; all I’m going to say is that while I accept Biden is looking inevitable, he ignores the millions of progressives who voted for Sanders & Warren (as Hillary did) at his own peril. If he treats us like Hillary did, he deserves to lose. Biden must choose a strong progressive VP.

Kamala?

Hahahaha good one, tell another

Who is good enough for you guys? Seriously, give me a name.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Hey Atlas progressives, as an uncompromising neoliberal and establishment shill, do not lose all hope. Tonight has shown that America has overwhelmingly rejected Bernie Sanders as a human nobody likes, and that Ameroca is not willing to accept uncompromising, divisive, socialist radicals woth a savior mentality. Next time instead of going for a purist star, go for a progressive (not socialist) workhorse with strong policy as well as strong rhetoric. There are plenty of choices. But you will lose if you go as left as Sanders (focus on builind a winning coalition around a few key issues) and embrace the unifying Buttigeig approach to politics instead of the losing Sanders strategy. Best wishes, even though I hope you keep losing.

What's the worst is the last sentence, the fact that you and people like you never want progressives to win. A Moderate only party is such a gross thought.

Obviously I want to win. Doesn't mean I won't support progressives against Republicans, but I naturally prefer that my agenda wins out. America has overwhelmingly chosen Biden style politics tonight, and if you're going to win, you need to find a new path forward. I would prefer to win, of course, but that doesn't mean you can't learn from your competition. Who knows...with a better approach, you might win us over.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Democrats outvoted Republicans by around 1.5 million in TX in 2008 , and won Collin by an even large margin in the primary than this year so this is a terrible comparison.

We could actually flip Collin this year. It might even be likely. Denton is probably another cycle away, though.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Democrats outvoted Republicans by around 1.5 million in TX in 2008 , and won Collin by an even large margin in the primary than this year so this is a terrible comparison.

We could actually flip Collin this year. It might even be likely. Denton is probably another cycle away, though.

Unless this is another 1980 Collin won’t flip

2012 election in Collin County, TX: R+31.5
2016 election in Collin County, TX: R+16.7
Swing: D+14.8

It isn't the most likely scenario, but a 17 point swing in Collin isn't impossible. It swung almost 15 points last time, and it is growing faster than almost anywhere else in the country with new residents probably being 70-30 Dem.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Democrats outvoted Republicans by around 1.5 million in TX in 2008 , and won Collin by an even large margin in the primary than this year so this is a terrible comparison.

We could actually flip Collin this year. It might even be likely. Denton is probably another cycle away, though.

Unless this is another 1980 Collin won’t flip

2012 election in Collin County, TX: R+31.5
2016 election in Collin County, TX: R+16.7
Swing: D+14.8

It isn't the most likely scenario, but a 17 point swing in Collin isn't impossible. It swung almost 15 points last time, and it is growing faster than almost anywhere else in the country with new residents probably being 70-30 Dem.

I could see at best see a 5 point deficit and most of that swing is already baked in and new residents at most would provide another 4-5 point swing and my prediction is a 7 point Dem swing there

Again you provide no evidence to support your proclamations

Lmao And neither do you except use an extremely extremely lazy analysis of trends and lmao using 2018 and instead of 2016 the baseline on where to start.

My basis is much more on conventional wisdom most of main stream media and pundits use

It is, but Collin is a special case (like GA), where trends outweigh conventional midterm-presidential swings and we can expect each election to be to the left of the one prior.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Democrats outvoted Republicans by around 1.5 million in TX in 2008 , and won Collin by an even large margin in the primary than this year so this is a terrible comparison.

We could actually flip Collin this year. It might even be likely. Denton is probably another cycle away, though.

Unless this is another 1980 Collin won’t flip

2012 election in Collin County, TX: R+31.5
2016 election in Collin County, TX: R+16.7
Swing: D+14.8

It isn't the most likely scenario, but a 17 point swing in Collin isn't impossible. It swung almost 15 points last time, and it is growing faster than almost anywhere else in the country with new residents probably being 70-30 Dem.

I could see at best see a 5 point deficit and most of that swing is already baked in and new residents at most would provide another 4-5 point swing and my prediction is a 7 point Dem swing there

Again you provide no evidence to support your proclamations

Lmao And neither do you except use an extremely extremely lazy analysis of trends and lmao using 2018 and instead of 2016 the baseline on where to start.

My basis is much more on conventional wisdom most of main stream media and pundits use

It is, but Collin is a special case (like GA), where trends outweigh conventional midterm-presidential swings and we can expect each election to be to the left of the one prior.

Not really , Republican turnout was not that high in 2018 or those Collin numbers wouldn’t look as impressive .

I would use Trump 2016 vs Beto 2018 as the starting line then not Cruz vs Beto . 

Fair enough. That's R+9.7. That isn't an impossible swing to overcome. Basically, it would require 35k net new Dem votes. Collin county is adding about 60k people per year, so if half vote, and of those 2/3 are Dem, then 25k votes need to come from flipped voters, generational turnover, and the 20k third party votes in 2016. Not the easiest lift but far from impossible.