538 Democratic primary model is up

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

New model has no majority at 60%, but Biden narrowly trailing Sanders being pretty close in delegates. When Bloomberg drops, this probably means Biden and Sanders finish with a very similar number of delegates. As such, I'd give Sanders a 1/3 shot of getting the nomination outright, Biden a 1/3 shot of getting the nomination outright, and Biden a 1/3 shot of getting the nomination on the second ballot. As such, Biden is the overwhelming favorite to be the nominee, has been the frontrunner from the start, and has honestly run a solid campaign. It's time to unite behind our likely nominee.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Also, 538 has Biden winning TX, NC, VA, TN, AL, OK, and AR on super tuesday. Klob is up in MN and Sanders takes CA, MA, CO, UT, ME, VT, and American Samoa. So much for a Sanders landslide.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Also, 538 has Biden winning TX, NC, VA, TN, AL, OK, and AR on super tuesday. Klob is up in MN and Sanders takes CA, MA, CO, UT, ME, VT, and American Samoa. So much for a Sanders landslide.

Those results (aside from TX and maybe NC) are pretty consistent with the CW prior to South Carolina - most people were not expecting a Sanders landslide across the board.

A lot (most?) people were predicting a comfortable Sanders win in TX and narrow ones in VA and NC.