UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Hearing and reading that the weather is dreadful - hard cold wins plus constant rain - in the midlands.

Isn't the impact of bad weather on turnout grossly exaggerated?

Yes but it does have a small effect, especially when combo'ed with limited daylight and a poor baseline temperature to begin with

Just another reason vote by mail should be worldwide.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

What the ?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1205250777956179968

Get ready to watch the north got Blue even as Esher and Walton goes orange lol.

Trends are global.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Goodbye, United Kingdom of four countries.

Probably not. There isn't gonna be an Indyref 2 if the SNP isn't in government.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Where are people seeing seat-by-seat exit poll projections?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Why wouldn’t they be able to get a second referendum? It seems clear that Scotland wants out.

Because the rest of the UK doesn't want to let them out. And it isn't clear, just like it isn't clear the rest of the UK wants Brexit. The only thing that is clear is that FPTP doesn't work.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If the actual counts bear this out, it does indeed look as though British voting patterns are moving closer towards those of the US & Canada - a stronger urban/rural divide, with wealthy urban & suburban areas going left while blue-collar areas go right.

Certainly Sedgefield & Bolsover voting Tory while Kensington & London go Labour more closely resembles American (post-1990s) & Canadian (post-1950s) results than British ones of the last hundred years.

The issue is that the UK Center Left vote is split, whereas the right wing vote is unified. In this analogy, this election is like the USA's 2016 election, and in the next election, the Home Counties all flip center-left while Labour continues to crater in the North. This means Labour has to go back to the Blair (or at least Milliband) days with the Lib Dems cratering so as to win in places like Surrey and Southwest London, or some Lab-Lib agreement has to be worked out. Regardless, Labour cannot count on economic leftism coupled with wavering on other issues to carry them forward in the future.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If the actual counts bear this out, it does indeed look as though British voting patterns are moving closer towards those of the US & Canada - a stronger urban/rural divide, with wealthy urban & suburban areas going left while blue-collar areas go right.

Certainly Sedgefield & Bolsover voting Tory while Kensington & London go Labour more closely resembles American (post-1990s) & Canadian (post-1950s) results than British ones of the last hundred years.

It's still to early to assume it'll be a long term trend. If Boris presses forward DC's plan of cutting down the number of constituencies to 600 the electoral map will change significantly in favor of the Conservative Party.

Maybe or maybe not.
One could reasonably expect 600 constituencies, distributed something like this:
London (incl. everything inside M25): 88
South East: 76
North West: 66
West Midlands: 54
East: 53
South West: 51
Scotland: 50
Yorkshire and the Humber: 49
East Midlands: 43
Wales: 29
North East: 24
Northern Ireland: 17

If Lib+Lab+SNP wins 90% of the London/Scotland seats, then they just need to win about 37% of the seats in the rest of Britain, which is absolutely doable

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

With Blyth Valley gain for tories, this is looking grim outside of urban areas.

But with the national popular vote exit polling, that could be balanced out with greater than expected Tory losses in urban areas.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

a better word for “global trends” is “English speaking world trends”

Some non-Anglophone countries have shown similar movement. France and Italy, to name some prominent ones.

ok fine expand it to Western Europe

First world trends. You see it in places like Taiwan too, with Tsai's DPP strenth increasingly lying in the cities.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

In addition to the global trends, this was a total failure on the part of anti-Brexit crowd to unite against Boris.

They did it on the Leave side with BXP standing down in Tory districts.

LibDems and Labour failed to get along in the same way.

Democrats in the US have to take note. Moderate Dems, progressives, moderate Republicans must wholly unite against Trump or assure re-election.

That of course is directed at all parties, [SNIPPED]

I think that a lot depends on the specific seats, but generally yes. Lots of Lib Dem - Tory marginals where Labour should’ve stepped aside. But a fair number that the Lib Dems shouldn’t have contested.

Some of this seems to assume that the Liberal Dems aren't actually okay with the conservatives winning. The more I see their antics, the more they come off like the US green party except staked out in the center left instead of far left as far as electoral posturing is concerned. To be clear, that means a lot of posturing, being useless, having little interest in actually governing, and more than happy to carry water for the most destructive elements of the right's propaganda.

But sure, because they were the most anti-Brexit of the big 3 they can be totally trusted to do the right thing when it comes crunch time. Right.

*looks at the Lib Dems who didn't do that for this election*

...Right....

Don't blame the Lib Dems for what's happening in Northern England. If anything, they're going to dent the Conservative majority by getting a few seats in the South Labour could have never won.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Damn. Chuka deserved that seat.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Lib Dems just passed 10% of UK-wide vote.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Woah! North East Fife went from SNP to Lib Dem.

Called it!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

tragic

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Green party ahead of Brexit party in national vote.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Corbyn out and Swinson defeated in her own seat. What a nightmare day for both Labour and LibDems.

Obviously Britons are sending a message, regardless of whether I or my Europhile friends across the pond agree with it.

Not really. Most Brits are voting Lab+Lib+Grn+SNP. FPTP is just bullsh*t.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Corbyn out and Swinson defeated in her own seat. What a nightmare day for both Labour and LibDems.

Obviously Britons are sending a message, regardless of whether I or my Europhile friends across the pond agree with it.

Not really. Most Brits are voting Lab+Lib+Grn+SNP. FPTP is just bullsh*t.

An easy excuse. The game has always been the same. Labour is losing seats its held for decades.

That may be, but that doesn't mean Brits are sending a message. Just that Labour lost.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Lab Hold Sheffield Hallam.

WTF

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Moral of tonight: everything sucks, liberal values are dead, people who stand up for what's right get punished, and nationalists (somehow) still think their ideas are good. Britain is about to get ed, and it absolutely deserves it.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Votes/constituency right now:
Green: 829,049
Lib Dem: 379,089
Labour: 49,542
Conservative: 38,295
SNP: 25,961

This is some f**ked up vote efficiency.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The real story of this election was a lack of a progressive pact/tactical voting killed the progressive parties, and that MUST be addressed in 2024 to kick the tories out. If you combine the CON/BRX/UKIP vote and pit it against the LIB/LAB/GRN/Prog independent vote, these 44 seats would have flipped (margin in parenthesis). Note that I'm only looking at English seats in this post.

1. Wimbledon (23.2)
2. Kensington (21.3)
3. Cities of London and Westminster (19.7)
4. Finchley and Golders Green (12.4)
5. Chipping Barnet (10.6)
6. Carshalton and Wallington (10.5)
7. Guildford (10.2)
8. Watford (9.0 )
9. Cheadle (8.1)
10. Truro and Falmouth (8.0 )
11. South Cambridgeshire (7.4)
12. Wycombe (6.3)
13. Hitchin and Harpenden (5.3)
14. Southport (4.
15. Lewes (4.0 )
16. High Peak (3.
17. Warrington South (3.6)
18. Chingford and Woodford Green (3.4)
19. Cheltenham (3.2)
20. Reading West (3.2)
21. Winchester (2.9)
22. Altrincham and Sale West (2.7)
23. Bury North (2.4)
24. Hazel Grove (2.4)
25. Hendon (2.4)
26. Rushcliffe (2.3)
27. Bury South (2.2)
28. Gedling (1.
29. Wolverhampton South West (1.6)
30. Filton and Bradley Stoke (1.2)
31. St Ives (1.1)
32. Woking (1.1)
33. Milton Keynes North (1.0 )
34. Pudsey (0.
35. South West Hertfordshire (0.
36. Wokingham (0.
37. Bolton North East (0.6)
38. Chelsea and Fulham (0.6)
39. Dewsbury (0.2)
40. Sutton and Cheam (0.1)
41. Esher and Walton (0.1)
42. Stroud (0.1)
43. York Outer (0.1)
44. Derby North (0.1)

Notice how most of these seats are in the South, particularly Metropolitan London. Sure, a few of the Labour heartland seats could have been saved with a progressive coalition, but on the whole, the easiest seats to win are in the South. Furthermore, trends towards the progressive parties in the South have been particularly dramatic, with many constituencies in Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Hertfordshire, and Surrey swinging 20+ points towards the progressives since 2015. This is where the election will be won in 2024, and that's part of why I think someone like Sadiq Khan should lead Labour going forward. Applying 2015-19 trends again coupled with a full progressive party pact, in 2024, these flips occur basically no matter what:

1. Kensington
2. Cities of London and Westminster
3. Wimbledon
4. Guildford
5. Hitchin and Harpenden
6. Chipping Barnet
7. Esher and Walton
8. South Cambridgeshire
9. Woking
10. South West Hertfordshire
11. Finchley and Golders Green
12. Wokingham
13. Chelsea and Fulham
14. Watford
15. Truro and Falmouth
16. Winchester
17. Chingford and Woodford Green
18. Altrincham and Sale West
19. Rushcliffe
20. Bury South
21. Reading West
22. Filton and Bradley Stoke
23. Cheadle
24. Bolton North East
25. East Worthing and Shoreham
26. Wycombe
27. Carshalton and Wallington
28. Wantage
29. Bournemouth East
30. Milton Keynes North
31. High Peak
32. York Outer
33. North East Somerset
34. South West Surrey
35. Milton Keynes South
36. South East Cambridgeshire
37. Cheltenham
38. North Somerset
39. Morecambe and Lunesdale
40. Aylesbury
41. Beckenham
42. Hastings and Rye
43. Warrington South
44. Bromley and Chislehurst
45. Epsom and Ewell
46. Mid Sussex
47. Hazel Grove
48. Beaconsfield
49. Pudsey
50. Northampton South
51. Uxbridge and South Ruislip
52. Totnes
53. Bury North
54. Loughborough
55. Croydon South
56. Bournemouth West
57. Chesham and Amersham

All of these seats flip with a progressive coalition and trends, even if the Conservative coalition wins the popular vote by 5+ points. Again, the vast majority are in the South, and the North remains mostly out of reach. Of course, they'll be offset by a few inevitable flips in Wales and Northern England (perhaps the Welsh Valleys will finally go), but in these places, Labour is mostly constrained to the big cities and has far fewer vulnerable seats than these ones. Besides, after that, there are still more competitive seats:

58. East Devon (flips if Conservatives win national vote by 5 points)
59. Welwyn Hatfield
60. Keighley
61. Macclesfield (flips if Conservatives win national vote by 4 points)
62. Shipley
63. Reigate
64. Wolverhampton South West
65. Crawley
66. Banbury
67. Henley
68. Worcester
69. Stroud
70. Tunbridge Wells (flips if Conservatives win national vote by 3 points)
71. Harrogate and Knaresborough
72. Romsey and Southampton North
73. Witney
74. Runnymede and Weybridge
75. Mole Valley
76. Lewes (flips if Conservatives win national vote by 2 points)
71. Southport
70. Gedling
71. Lincoln
72. Maidenhead
73. St Ives
74. Sutton and Cheam
75. Norwich North
76. South Swindon (flips if Conservatives win national vote by 1 point)
77. Huntingdon
78. South Thanet
79. Peterborough
80. Worthing West
81. Dewsbury
82. Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
83. Derby North
84. Shrewsbury and Atcham (flips if national vote is tied)
85. Harborough
86. Bastingstoke
87. Arundel and South Downs
88. Colne Valley
89. Southampton Itchen (flips if Progressives win national vote by 1 point)
90. Hexham
91. Newbury
92. Birmingham Northfield
93. Stevenage
94. Central Devon
95. Calder Valley
96. North East Hertfordshire (flips if Progressives win national vote by 2 points)
97. Chichester
98. Northampton North
99. Telford
100. West Bromwich East
101. Hemel Hempstead (flips if Progressives win national vote by 3 points)
102. Torridge and West Devon
103. West Dorset
104. Rochester and Strood
105. Hendon
106. Heywood and Middleton
107. Chelmsford
108. Hertford and Stortford (flips if Progressives win national vote by 4 points)
105. Salisbury
106. Ipswich
107. Gloucester
108. Somerton and Frome
109. Isle of Wight
110. Windsor
111. Pendle (flips if Progressives win national vote by 5 points)

Obviously, these figures are a bit crude, but there are two clear takeaways: there needs to be a progressive coalition and 2024 will be won in the traditionally Conservative South. What this means now, is that the Greens, Lib Dems, and Labour need to reach some consensus on a unifying, center-left message which is pro-immigrant, pro-Europe, pro-environment, pro-working and middle class but not anti-business; and consistently hammer the Conservatives on the same talking points. Regardless, trying to win back the small-town postindustrial North isn't going to work.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

@Oryxslayer
The conservatives+bxp may have a majority of seats, but 44 seats were lost because of progressive vote splitting and another 30 or so were decided by under 30 points.

In regards to progressive vote packing, that's about to change in a big way. Hertfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Surrey, Oxfordshire, the South Coast, and the Bristol area all had swings that would put Orange County 2012-2018 to shame. When these seats go, that's like 80 more seats to the progressives. That said, if they end up going 40 Com/ 30 Lib/ 30 Lab, there is no effective solution. Winning that and shoring up seats in the metropolitan North gives progressives a clear path to a majority, even without nationalists.

In regards to Scotland, there are so few tory seats that a progressive coalition with the SNP becomes pointless, although Labour and the Lib Dems might band together to beat the SNP.

Regardless, I think Labour and the Lib Dems should be explicit abput working together to beat the Tories, have a clear vision for what a Lib-Lab government would look like, and not shy away from picking a Londoner like Khan as Labour leader to lead this new metropolitan majority.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Guildford
Conservative Bloc 2015: 65.9
Conservative Bloc 2019: 44.9
Swing: 21.0

Esher and Walton
Conservative Bloc 2015: 72.6
Conservative Bloc 2019: 49.4
Swing: 23.2

Wokingham
Conservative Bloc 2015: 67.6
Conservative Bloc 2019: 49.6
Swing: 18.0

Sevenoaks
Conservative Bloc 2015: 74.8
Conservative Bloc 2019: 60.7
Swing: 14.1

Tunbridge Wells
Conservative Bloc 2015: 71.3
Conservative Bloc 2019: 55.1
Swing: 16.2

Runnymede and Weybridge
Conservative Bloc 2015: 73.6
Conservative Bloc 2019: 55.8
Swing: 17.8

South West Hertfordshire
Conservative Bloc 2015: 68.4
Conservative Bloc 2019: 49.6
Swing: 18.8

Surrey Heath
Conservative Bloc 2015: 74.2
Conservative Bloc 2019: 59.7
Swing: 14.5

Reigate
Conservative Bloc 2015: 70.1
Conservative Bloc 2019: 55.1
Swing: 15.0

Chesham and Amersham
Conservative Bloc 2015: 72.8
Conservative Bloc 2019: 55.4
Swing: 17.4

St Albans
Conservative Bloc 2015: 54.4
Conservative Bloc 2019: 39.2
Swing: 15.2

You really think there's nothing here?