Which is more likely to flip? Arizona and Georgia or Iowa and Ohio (user search)
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  Which is more likely to flip? Arizona and Georgia or Iowa and Ohio (search mode)
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Author Topic: Which is more likely to flip? Arizona and Georgia or Iowa and Ohio  (Read 1628 times)
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,835
United States


« on: November 30, 2018, 12:33:12 AM »
This. Georgia (and Texas) will be ahead of Iowa by 2024, however. Right now, I'm thinking there is a >60% chance AZ, PA, WI, and MI vote Dem, which would extend downwards to 45% FL, 40% IA, 35% GA, 25% OH, and 20% TX.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,835
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2018, 12:36:40 AM »
Quote from: RFKFan68 on November 29, 2018, 11:58:31 PM
Quote from: RaphaelDLG on November 29, 2018, 12:19:47 PM
Arizona and Georgia, mostly because of Ohio, but I feel like both, especially Georgia, are overrated as democratic prospects.
Stacey Abrams just lost by 1 point but Georgia is overrated as a Democratic prospect?


My thinking is you can subtract 1 point for candidate quality, 2 for miderm wave, anf add 2 for trends. another for trends, and in 2020 you get a 47-51 Trump victory. Keep this to 2024 and you get a 51-48 Dem Victory (subtracting one for Trump not being on the ballot.) The same math applies to Texas.
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