Likely R with or without him, so won’t make much difference in the grand scheme of things.
Come on, you know this isn't true. First of all, it depends on the lines. But more importantly, you cannot in good faith say that this incumbent who regularly over-performs has *the same chance of winning* as a generic Democratic candidate. I'm not saying he's the favorite or anything like that; I agree he's an underdog for reelection, but "[same rating] with or without him" is just a pretty ridiculous comment regardless of what the actual rating is.
