Meatball Ron
recoveringdemocrat
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,284
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« on: August 02, 2021, 03:45:30 PM » |
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Makes sense to me that Murkowski would beat Tshibaka in a one-on-one race, but the second poll is what's important - to gauge whether she'd make it to the final round. And unfortunately, as currently asked, the second poll is useless for actually figuring out if Murkowski would survive:
1. It polls two very similar far-right Rs (Tshibaka and Miller). We don't really have any reason to believe that there will be two prominent candidates like this, or that if there were, one wouldn't be able to coalesce most of the support. Obviously Tshibaka and Miller's combined total surpasses that of Murkowski.
2. Dems/Indys are likely to get a stronger candidate than Gray-Jackson, who would perform higher than 19% in the first round, further imperiling Murkowski by knocking her into third place. Particularly if Al Gross runs, who as Skye acknowledged, should have been polled
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