Most Vulnerable House Incumbents?

[Meatball Ron]

Under the current map, I'm quite confident Kind will lose, though it seems like there is a decent shot that his district will be shored up in a compromise with Evers, to prevent the Court drawing a map that could threaten GOP incumbents.

Cartwright would likely lose under the current map and I actually expect his district to get worse with redistricting.

Malinowski, Axne, Underwood, Spanberger, Craig, Stevens, Lee, O'Halleran, Slotkin, Wild, and Golden would be the next most vulnerable Dems under the current map. Some of these folks (e.g., Underwood and Lee, maybe Axne) are likely to get better seats; others (e.g., O'Halleran and Malinowski) are likely to get worse seats. Some, like VA-07 and MN-02, could really go in either direction or potentially even stay mostly the same. Pappas is vulnerable-ish under the current lines but things could get worse for him with redistricting.

On the GOP side, under the current map, Mike Garcia, Young Kim, and Beth Van Duyne strike me as the most vulnerable; Garcia's district will likely get even worse, while Van Duyne's gets much better, and Kim's is TBD. Steel and Salazar could also be vulnerable under either old or new lines. I think Bacon's personal popularity would save him under current lines though the district more generally is obviously liable to flip; we'll have to see what happens with redistricting here.

As for incumbents who are safe under current lines, but may be screwed under new lines, you of course have Cooper, Mrvan, Malliotakis, Yvette Herrell, Rodney Davis and/or Adam Kinzinger (who is also vulnerable in a primary), likely one other New York Republican, and an outside shot at Cleaver / Yarmuth / Davids (though less likely based on the recent Politico article). One of the two newly elected Dems in NC, and one of either McBath or Bordeaux is also likely screwed. The GOP will likely also nab one seat in the RGV, though it could be the open seat so unclear which incumbent if any will be defeated.

Cheney, Rice, and Gonzalez are also vulnerable in a primary, as are potentially Maloney and Cuellar.

I'm sure I've missed some but I think this covers the bases.

[Meatball Ron]

Under the current map, I'm quite confident Kind will lose, though it seems like there is a decent shot that his district will be shored up in a compromise with Evers, to prevent the Court drawing a map that could threaten GOP incumbents.

Cartwright would likely lose under the current map and I actually expect his district to get worse with redistricting.

Malinowski, Axne, Underwood, Spanberger, Craig, Stevens, Lee, O'Halleran, Slotkin, Wild, and Golden would be the next most vulnerable Dems under the current map. Some of these folks (e.g., Underwood and Lee, maybe Axne) are likely to get better seats; others (e.g., O'Halleran and Malinowski) are likely to get worse seats. Some, like VA-07 and MN-02, could really go in either direction or potentially even stay mostly the same. Pappas is vulnerable-ish under the current lines but things could get worse for him with redistricting.

On the GOP side, under the current map, Mike Garcia, Young Kim, and Beth Van Duyne strike me as the most vulnerable; Garcia's district will likely get even worse, while Van Duyne's gets much better, and Kim's is TBD. Steel and Salazar could also be vulnerable under either old or new lines. I think Bacon's personal popularity would save him under current lines though the district more generally is obviously liable to flip; we'll have to see what happens with redistricting here.

As for incumbents who are safe under current lines, but may be screwed under new lines, you of course have Cooper, Mrvan, Malliotakis, Yvette Herrell, Rodney Davis and/or Adam Kinzinger (who is also vulnerable in a primary), likely one other New York Republican, and an outside shot at Cleaver / Yarmuth / Davids (though less likely based on the recent Politico article). One of the two newly elected Dems in NC, and one of either McBath or Bordeaux is also likely screwed. The GOP will likely also nab one seat in the RGV, though it could be the open seat so unclear which incumbent if any will be defeated.

Cheney, Rice, and Gonzalez are also vulnerable in a primary, as are potentially Maloney and Cuellar.

I'm sure I've missed some but I think this covers the bases.

Either Slotkin or Stevens probably gets a better district in redistricting.  One of them likely picks up Pontiac.

Yeah, Michigan redistricting feels like a massive question mark to me so I didn't bother making any predictions about new lines there.