PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Meatball Ron]

I would guess Lamb's strategy to win in a general election is trying to appeal to some more conservative voters or a bunch of Trump voters. Fetterman meanwhile is probably better suited to turn out new voters, especially younger voters although he may also appeal to populists.

While both would make a decent senator, I'm rooting for Fetterman because he's a rational progressive and offering a positive contrast to certain Squad members. The progressive wing needs representation through people like him. Also, I think he sincerely cares about improving conditions in distressed areas and could really be a voice for these communities.

I would bet Lamb's general election strategy would actually be more about absolutely running up the score in the suburbs, and keeping rural / Trump voter performance at Biden levels.

Curious what you mean by Fetterman offering a contrast to squad members / progressives needing representation through "people like him"?

[Meatball Ron]

Fetterman is a Randy Bryce 2.0, a carciture of a working class democrat that all metropolitan democrats think is exactly what they need to win back rural and working class areas due to this aesthetics despite his policy and rethoric being indistrigushable from a normal progressive. and are then suprised when he flops among those voters.

Fetterman's main issue seems to be legal weed which while broadly popular isn't really an important issue that will allow him to make gains among trump voters. He has never run in actual competitive election beyond his LG primary where he was the sole western PA canidate against 4 philly canidates and his braddock mayor primary.  Braddock is a town that gave Joe Biden 90% of their vote, so it's hardly any indication of cross-over support.

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.

What? No. No. Silly silly comparison.

Randy Bryce was a multiple times failed candidate who came out of nowhere to challenge the House Speaker, why the Wisconsin Democrats got behind this is beyond me, but he did. His past was thoroughly exposed and he was defeated handily. The problem with Randy Bryce was that he was not a known quantity, yes he was picked up by out of state liberals who saw in him a stereotype of the WWC, thinking he could win back Trump Democrats. But the problem is that he came completely out of left field.

Fetterman is a known quantity, literally the current Lieutenant Governor of a large state, and has statewide campaign experience, and by all accounts is trusted and liked by the state party establishment. While it's true he has no proven electoral edge, the idea that his ideology is indistinguishable from an out of state liberal isn't true either, given John's tack on fracking.There is a cheap, lame attempt to turn John Fetterman into Randy Bryce, fortunately the comparison falls to pieces at the slightest scrutiny.

I think the more important point here is that Fetterman, like Bryce, is a caricature of what Dems in blue states think Trump voters look like, and what they want their politicians to look like. "Wow this guy is big, tatooed, and dresses like an auto mechanic - he can definitely swing Trump voters!" Meanwhile their real strength is actually on Twitter, with the meme crowd. Yes, they obviously have different electoral records, but I think Liberal Hack's point still very much stands.

[Meatball Ron]

I would guess Lamb's strategy to win in a general election is trying to appeal to some more conservative voters or a bunch of Trump voters. Fetterman meanwhile is probably better suited to turn out new voters, especially younger voters although he may also appeal to populists.

While both would make a decent senator, I'm rooting for Fetterman because he's a rational progressive and offering a positive contrast to certain Squad members. The progressive wing needs representation through people like him. Also, I think he sincerely cares about improving conditions in distressed areas and could really be a voice for these communities.

I would bet Lamb's general election strategy would actually be more about absolutely running up the score in the suburbs, and keeping rural / Trump voter performance at Biden levels.

Curious what you mean by Fetterman offering a contrast to squad members / progressives needing representation through "people like him"?

Fetterman strikes me as someone who stays away from toxic culture war debates like "defund the police" and mainly focuses on economic inequality and good community work. These are issues voters can relate with a proper messager. His own experience and record in Braddock makes him appear sincere and a credible voice on the latter in particular. Fetterman also has refused to attack moderate Democrats in the past and instead emphasized what unites Democrats. I think he's an integrating figure, what would allow him to actually work on problems once elected senator and not just hang around for publicity stunts. That's why I hope he wins the primary and the general election.

Holding an unarmed black jogger at gunpoint and repeatedly refusing to apologize for it doesn't feel especially "integrating" to me, but your points about his difference from squad members are well-taken.

[Meatball Ron]

I would guess Lamb's strategy to win in a general election is trying to appeal to some more conservative voters or a bunch of Trump voters. Fetterman meanwhile is probably better suited to turn out new voters, especially younger voters although he may also appeal to populists.

While both would make a decent senator, I'm rooting for Fetterman because he's a rational progressive and offering a positive contrast to certain Squad members. The progressive wing needs representation through people like him. Also, I think he sincerely cares about improving conditions in distressed areas and could really be a voice for these communities.

I would bet Lamb's general election strategy would actually be more about absolutely running up the score in the suburbs, and keeping rural / Trump voter performance at Biden levels.

Curious what you mean by Fetterman offering a contrast to squad members / progressives needing representation through "people like him"?

Fetterman strikes me as someone who stays away from toxic culture war debates like "defund the police" and mainly focuses on economic inequality and good community work. These are issues voters can relate with a proper messager. His own experience and record in Braddock makes him appear sincere and a credible voice on the latter in particular. Fetterman also has refused to attack moderate Democrats in the past and instead emphasized what unites Democrats. I think he's an integrating figure, what would allow him to actually work on problems once elected senator and not just hang around for publicity stunts. That's why I hope he wins the primary and the general election.

Holding an unarmed black jogger at gunpoint and repeatedly refusing to apologize for it doesn't feel especially "integrating" to me, but your points about his difference from squad members are well-taken.

Didn't the jogger endorse him?

Yes, but just because one person has the capacity for forgiveness doesn't make what he did any less unacceptable. The jogger does not speak for the black community, or anyone but himself. Note that the jogger did not revise his account of the event; he still maintains that Fetterman is lying, but just that he has forgiven him. Would be different if the jogger were revising his story.

[Meatball Ron]

I would guess Lamb's strategy to win in a general election is trying to appeal to some more conservative voters or a bunch of Trump voters. Fetterman meanwhile is probably better suited to turn out new voters, especially younger voters although he may also appeal to populists.

While both would make a decent senator, I'm rooting for Fetterman because he's a rational progressive and offering a positive contrast to certain Squad members. The progressive wing needs representation through people like him. Also, I think he sincerely cares about improving conditions in distressed areas and could really be a voice for these communities.

I would bet Lamb's general election strategy would actually be more about absolutely running up the score in the suburbs, and keeping rural / Trump voter performance at Biden levels.

Curious what you mean by Fetterman offering a contrast to squad members / progressives needing representation through "people like him"?

Fetterman strikes me as someone who stays away from toxic culture war debates like "defund the police" and mainly focuses on economic inequality and good community work. These are issues voters can relate with a proper messager. His own experience and record in Braddock makes him appear sincere and a credible voice on the latter in particular. Fetterman also has refused to attack moderate Democrats in the past and instead emphasized what unites Democrats. I think he's an integrating figure, what would allow him to actually work on problems once elected senator and not just hang around for publicity stunts. That's why I hope he wins the primary and the general election.

Holding an unarmed black jogger at gunpoint and repeatedly refusing to apologize for it doesn't feel especially "integrating" to me, but your points about his difference from squad members are well-taken.

Didn't the jogger endorse him?

Yes, but just because one person has the capacity for forgiveness doesn't make what he did any less unacceptable. The jogger does not speak for the black community, or anyone but himself. Note that the jogger did not revise his account of the event; he still maintains that Fetterman is lying, but just that he has forgiven him. Would be different if the jogger were revising his story.

Well, no one person speaks for the Black community. Or the Asian community, or Jewish community, or any other community. So not sure what you mean by that. I just think if the person who was victimized was able to forgive and endorse we should probably move on from the issue. And I say this as someone who has soured on Fetterman.

I agree that no one person speaks for any community - which is why I, or any other voter, can still think Fetterman's actions are disqualifying, even if a person involved was not. My bigger problem is that he refuses to apologize which speaks to his character. It's much bigger than any one person's capacity to forgive.

[Meatball Ron]

I want Keyanetta

I would be fine with Kenyatta as well.

Also very funny to see the #KHive jumping ship from Kenyatta because he praised Cori Bush.

Worth noting that this is only a portion of the "K-Hive"; it seems to be a source of internal division (to the extent that an un-organized / loosely defined group can have "internal division" haha, I am wary of discussing as if they're an official, organized group). But I've seen several of the larger K-Hive accounts reiterating their support for Kenyatta and critiquing the Lamb defectors for overreacting to one photo.

For what it's worth, I am what you'd probably call K-Hive (strong supporter of any political ambitions the VP has and very sensitive to attacks on her that I feel are rooted in racial / gender biases - but I don't actually post on Twitter, just lurk), and I am still fully supporting Kenyatta (though I do think Lamb > Fetterman, due to the jogger incident).

[Meatball Ron]

I want Keyanetta

I would be fine with Kenyatta as well.

Also very funny to see the #KHive jumping ship from Kenyatta because he praised Cori Bush.

Worth noting that this is only a portion of the "K-Hive"; it seems to be a source of internal division (to the extent that an un-organized / loosely defined group can have "internal division" haha, I am wary of discussing as if they're an official, organized group). But I've seen several of the larger K-Hive accounts reiterating their support for Kenyatta and critiquing the Lamb defectors for overreacting to one photo.

For what it's worth, I am what you'd probably call K-Hive (strong supporter of any political ambitions the VP has and very sensitive to attacks on her that I feel are rooted in racial / gender biases - but I don't actually post on Twitter, just lurk), and I am still fully supporting Kenyatta (though I do think Lamb > Fetterman, due to the jogger incident).

Fair. The MAGA wing of the KHive would be a better term for it.

That feels like a low blow but I’ll ask in good faith what you mean by MAGA wing? When I think of MAGA on the left, the closest parallel would be a) ppl who won’t support the Dem nominee because they aren’t left enough b) people who buy into the same sort of conspiracy theories (“DNC rigged the primary against bernie,” “Nina only lost because of dirty Jew money,” etc.) For all of some K-Hiver’s faults, you can’t dispute that they are unfailingly loyal Dem votes

I’m genuinely curious what you mean by MAGA wing, not trying to start some proxy argument with you considering we probably see eye to eye on 98% of political topics and I’m a huge fan of all your NH insights

[Meatball Ron]

Fair. The MAGA wing of the KHive would be a better term for it.

That feels like a low blow but I’ll ask in good faith what you mean by MAGA wing? When I think of MAGA on the left, the closest parallel would be a) ppl who won’t support the Dem nominee because they aren’t left enough b) people who buy into the same sort of conspiracy theories (“DNC rigged the primary against bernie,” “Nina only lost because of dirty Jew money,” etc.) For all of some K-Hiver’s faults, you can’t dispute that they are unfailingly loyal Dem votes

I’m genuinely curious what you mean by MAGA wing, not trying to start some proxy argument with you considering we probably see eye to eye on 98% of political topics and I’m a huge fan of all your NH insights

There is a smaller (but very vocal) part of the KHive that, in my opinion, views the Democratic left as a larger threat than the GOP and would have gladly thrown the election to Trump if Bernie won the nomination. Basically, this group of fans is more concerned with their idea of the Democratic Party than the party's well-being itself.

When I talk about the MAGA wing, I'm talking about the people who promised not to support the Democratic nominee if they were too far left and boosted far-right smears against Bernie and AOC. I'm talking about the people who sent death threats to Bernie, defended the murder at Charlottesville as an "accident", and the people who turn on any politician for praising The Squad. I'm talking about the people who called for a journalist's head because she asked Lisa Murkowski about Neera Tanden's mean tweets.

This wing (which does have nonzero influence) does have some sway and it is a bit troubling. But in the grand scheme of things, it's all just a bunch of Twitter drama that doesn't matter. I think we all know that you're not a part of the MAGA wing.

I wouldn't call them MAGA wing necessarily, but yeah there is this super portion of the K-Hive who exist solely to be anti-progressives and punch the left. This includes only bringing up and referencing Lauren Underwood to tear down AOC, pitting minority women against each other. This also includes minimizing and mocking AOC's trauma about 1/6. It's comical to see them suddenly become huge Carolyn Maloney or Dan Lipinski fans, simply because progressives and left-wing groups opposed them. I won't say that there aren't some left-wing groups and individuals who are toxic and come off as just being entirely anti-establishment just because, without ideological consistencies. It is perfectly fine to be critical of progressives and their policies, but this faction of the K-Hive engages in toxicity that seeks to just attack progressives for no consistent reason.

Not no consistent reason, they do it because they have a misguided belief in meritocracy being good cuz deep down they want to be like Kamala...a girlboss or whatever. They are neoliberals driven purely by self-interest and most would be Republicans if they weren't Black, women, LGBTQ, etc...

The funniest part is though that they do it all in the name of the candidate who sits in the middle off the Venn diagram for why both progressives and establishment Dems are unelectable, our current VP who was laughed out of the primaries and who will guarantee president DeSantis if she ever follows her own inflated ego to a White House bid.

But in more relevant words, is this primary going to guarantee a Senator Parnell? It is already developing in a really nasty fashion. I honestly think only Fetterman is electable. Kenyatta is a terrible fit for statewide office, Lamb is totally uninspiring to base voters, and Arkoosh is too unknown. But they are all sniping hard at Fetterman and it's hard to see how he wouldn't come out of this without serious reputational damage, especially now that Lamb is in and obviously willing to let any corporation spend whatever amount of money they want getting him elected.

Bolded the statements in your atrocious post that are patently false, deeply mischaracterizing, or downright offensive. I'm sure I missed some.

[Meatball Ron]

No idea how legit this is / how much stock we should put in it, but thought it was an interesting result - supposedly some signs of Kenyatta momentum

https://twitter.com/Anna_Greenberg/status/1472942653331410955

[Meatball Ron]

Seriously, Atlas. A US House member representing a District with strong downballot Democratic leanings who underperformed Biden while running against a man who would then lose custody of their kids over domestic violence issues is not more electable than a sitting statewide official who was part of a ticket that won statewide in a landslide that was the biggest Dem win in the state in its entire decade. This aint hard.

And failed to capitalize on that knowledge!

I could at least understand arguing for Kenyatta or Arkoosh - especially Kenyatta given his performance - but come on. If Lamb wasn't a centrist the same people lauding him would be as vehemently opposed as I am.

Snip

Fantastic summary of the dynamics in this race

[Meatball Ron]

Is there any evidence at all that a Senator Lamb would act like Manchin or Sinema?

The fact that he voted to the right when his district has afforded it, and has been very duplicitous in his opposition for said issues. Not only on weed, but issues like bank reform as well. Sure, he's promised now to end the filibuster, but if we take control of the Senate again and the state trends to Trump it's enough to make me question his commitment.

At this point, we can't afford to take the risk.

Fetterman is running a bad campaign. Perhaps leftists should take responsibility for their own performances rather than blame the shadowy elites.

I prefer Kenyatta over both of the other two. But I accept that he’s unlikely to win.

Trust me - I'm very aware. I know you have your narratives about Bernie Bros, but I'm not your guy. I've been very vocal that Fetterman's lollygagging his way through the primary. Just scroll up the thread.

My issue is that the establishment is astroturfing Lamb over Kenyatta, despite his failures. I've been very vocal in this thread defending your candidate. I'm not concerned with fealty to my candidates or whatever. I'm concerned with your ideology, and Kenyatta is progressive enough. Malcolm Kenyatta is working his ass off and making all the right moves to stay competitive. I see him bringing moderates and Justice Dems together. I see a brilliant candidate from Philly itself. And I see party officials abandoning him for the awful crime of being a progressive.

The party machine is only uniting around Lamb because he is a centrist. Let's drop the "lazy campaign" stuff for a bit - the centerpiece of Lamb's campaign has been January 6th. From my view, Lamb has actively sidelined economic issues, unlike Kenyatta. Multiple internals - including the one that just dropped - have Kenyatta running even. From my view, the party is conflating centrism and fundraising with electability.

I'm not angry about my candidate not getting a fair chance. I'm angry about yours.

Great post. I was coming around to Lamb because I was worried about Kenyatta's viability, and because my chief goal here is stopping Fetterman - not for being progressive, but for being a racist, for being lazy/performative, and for being an electoral liability. But I'm ready to hop back aboard the Kenyatta train all the way.

[Meatball Ron]

Democratic insiders would rather a Republican win

You sound like a conspiracy theorist. The following things can all be true at once:

a) so-called "establishment" Democrats are disappointed at Fetterman's primary victory for a number of potential reasons - in my case / many people's case, his unwillingness to demonstrate remorse for the jogger incident and his seeming lack of interest in winning over black voters
b) the same people mentioned in (a) recognize that Fetterman is far superior to Oz (in the sense that any Democrat is far superior to any Republican), and will vote for Fetterman if they live in PA
c) the same people mentioned in (a) are concerned that Fetterman's health could impair his ability to campaign / serve, and wish he had been more transparent about it, but will not vote or behave differently because of this

Not sure what's so hard to understand here.

[Meatball Ron]

Democratic insiders would rather a Republican win

You sound like a conspiracy theorist. The following things can all be true at once:

a) so-called "establishment" Democrats are disappointed at Fetterman's primary victory for a number of potential reasons - in my case / many people's case, his unwillingness to demonstrate remorse for the jogger incident and his seeming lack of interest in winning over black voters
b) the same people mentioned in (a) recognize that Fetterman is far superior to Oz (in the sense that any Democrat is far superior to any Republican), and will vote for Fetterman if they live in PA
c) the same people mentioned in (a) are concerned that Fetterman's health could impair his ability to campaign / serve, and wish he had been more transparent about it, but will not vote or behave differently because of this

Not sure what's so hard to understand here.

I don't really understand this point, Fetterman almost certainly won Black Pennsylvanians in the primary, no?

Not saying he didn't. Saying he's made no explicit effort to build bridges / establish trust with black voters, specifically - a critical Dem demographic of course and a group whose turnout rate in November could win or lose Fetterman the election. He doesn't spend much time speaking on issues of specific importance to black constituencies, either. Basically just seems like he doesn't care.

[Meatball Ron]

Not saying he didn't. Saying he's made no explicit effort to build bridges / establish trust with black voters, specifically - a critical Dem demographic of course and a group whose turnout rate in November could win or lose Fetterman the election. He doesn't spend much time speaking on issues of specific importance to black constituencies, either. Basically just seems like he doesn't care.

Very late to this but how are we measuring black outreach here if not through performance in the primary? Just intuition?

Also I do find it somewhat amusing how online centrists went from (rather confusingly) being more rabidly opposed to Fetterman than perhaps any other candidate this cycle to "oh, he's actually a centrist so who cares" after Lamb got creamed, and now that they smell blood in the water they're trying to overturn the primary. The primary is over, it's time to move on and support the nominee.

To your first paragraph - he probably won the black vote in PA overall just because his margin was so big generally / didn't have formidable competition, but if you look at the precinct level in Philly - he definitely came in third in a bunch of the heavily black precincts (I am not going to pull the exact data for you. You can go on Twitter and find the relevant maps; I don't really care if you believe me or not). Also would tack on the big disclaimer that you can't really extrapolate primary results to general election turnout. But beyond actual primary results, no, it's not just "intuition." Look at his platform, his speeches, his advertisements, etc. He isn't talking about racial justice. He isn't talking about police reform. He isn't even really talking about voting rights. He's talking about weed and climate change and populist economic / class issues. All worthy topics, of course, but he just pretty clearly isn't making an effort with black voters specifically - which is important for ANY candidate in a state where black turnout can make the difference between winning or losing, but particularly for Fetterman who had a high profile racial incident and is distrusted by at least portions of the black community. He should be going to black churches, etc. Ideally he would give a mea culpa apology speech and walk back his prior lack of remorse / dismissiveness of the jogger incident, but I suspect he's too egotistical to do that.

To your second paragraph - I have no idea what you're talking about. I'm certainly not doing that? As in, I am not a centrist, nor have I called Fetterman a centrist, nor am I trying to overturn the primary. Perhaps some people are doing that, but the remark feels completely out of place in this specific post / this response to my post. I agree it is time to support the nominee. I am not relitigating the primary (nowhere have I mentioned Lamb or Kenyatta). I am simply criticizing Fetterman and the way he's chosen to run his campaign, which is of course fair game for this thread.

[Meatball Ron]

I’ve never understood why many here thought that Barnette was a "weaker candidate" than Oz. Oz (supposedly) being helped by the fact that he is less "extreme" than Barnette presupposes that persuadable voters largely vote based on ideology as opposed to appearance, authenticity, & trust, which... is certainly an unconventional view of the role of psychology in political campaigns.

I feel like a huge part of this is Barnes is running against an incumbent.

Mandela Barnes is running for Senate in Wisconsin. MT Treasurer is referring to Kathy Barnette, who came in 3rd place in the GOP primary for Senate in Pennsylvania.