2020 Redistricting in Arizona (user search)
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  2020 Redistricting in Arizona (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Redistricting in Arizona  (Read 24365 times)
Meatball Ron
recoveringdemocrat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,284


« on: August 09, 2021, 10:31:26 AM »

I tried my hand at a second fair 9-district map of Arizona.

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

90/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
80/100 on the Compactness Index
81/100 on County Splitting
93/100 on the Minority Representation index
29/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.



Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Arizona: 7R to 2D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Arizona: 5D to 4R

2018 Arizona Attorney General Election: 5D to 4R

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Arizona: 5D to 4R

2018 Arizona Gubernatorial Election: 6R to 3D

2018 Texas Lieutenant Governor Election: 21R to 17D

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Arizona: 5D to 4R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Arizona: 5D to 4R



Opinions?

This is a fantastic map. The only thing I don't like is that the Navajo population gets lumped into a district with a bunch of deplorables, which probably elects Gosar. But I don't have a better suggestion; the current AZ-01 is not practical.
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Meatball Ron
recoveringdemocrat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,284


« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2021, 11:51:17 AM »

This map looks horrible. Democrats could easily end up with just 2 seats.

Eh that’s a stretch. Seems like in this map AZ-7 could fall but only if everything goes wrong for Dems; 3 and 4 are safe. On the flip side 8 and 2 could fall for the GOP in a bad cycle so i would argue it’s pretty fair in terms of partinsahip, I’m just disappointed they didn’t make more highly competitive seats

I assume this is the map, right? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/arizona/draft_7_1/

4 sure doesn't look safe lol, it's literally an even PVI

Dang your right it looks safer than it is. Prolly becomes safe by the end of decade and Biden prolly won it by about 8 or so in 2020.

I find the 538 numbers to be pretty uninformative - do we know Biden vs. Trump in these new districts?
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