MA-SEN Megathread: Senator Markey wins

[Meatball Ron]

Kennedy definitely want in on the Senate, he is close to Van Hollen, too, despite what CCM said about DSCC helping Markey, whom is a party-line vote like boring Ben Cardin.

He definitely thinks the Dems will reclaim the majority; as a result, he is ready for the filibuster reform

This was not especially coherent so I can't engage with the rest of the post, but Markey is nothing like Ben Cardin

[Meatball Ron]

If I were Kennedy, I wouldn’t do this. I think it’s a mistake. If he fails he’s basically finished — he’d never be able to live down the humiliation of being the Kennedy who lost a Senate race in Massachusetts, and in a Democratic primary at that. It’s not worth it. It only would be if Markey was unpopular or scandal-ridden, which he’s not — that means he has the best chance anyone in the state ever could to beat a Kennedy, even if he is the favorite for now.

What I would do instead is wait to see if Warren wins the White House — if she does, there will be a special election to fill her seat. He could run then. If she doesn’t, Charlie Baker will be term-limited in 2022 — run for the Governor’s Mansion, which is likely to flip to the Dems that year anyway, especially with a Kennedy running. Then, in 2026, Markey will be 80 years old and probably much more willing to retire. THEN you can run for his open seat if you still want to, or just run for governor again if not.

Plus if he did all that, in 2032, Kennedy would have 10 years of House experience, 4 years of gubernatorial experience, and 6 years of Senate experience. Impressive resume for a presidential candidate — if an eligible Democratic incumbent is not President that year (likely if a Democrat wins in 2020 or 2024 and is a two-termer), he would likely be a strong candidate to run and still only be 50.

I thought Massachusetts had no gubernatorial term limits.

Correct - we have no gubernatorial term-limits; this is an ill-informed post. Furthermore, assuming Baker does retire in 2018, the popular state Attorney General Maura Healey is essentially governor-in-waiting, has been for a while. Kennedy's options if he loses to Markey are Senate special in 2022 if Warren becomes POTUS, or Markey's seat in 2026 assuming Markey retires.

[Meatball Ron]

Brookline was the birthplace of JFK and JPKIII's grandfather, RFK, and JPKIII was living in Newton while he represented the 4th district. Why would these two communities vote so heavily against Kennedy?

These two towns are dominated by highly educated liberal white professionals. In other words, Markey's base. They also both have very high Jewish populations, though I'm not sure that made much of a difference since neither candidate is Jewish / has any particular ties to the Jewish community.