I happened to notice that counties such as Fairfax and Loudoun have turnout around 80% whereas the rural couties in western Virginia have around 50%. Considering that this is an off year and Stewart has a home county advantage, he could very well pull it off if he turns out the rural areas and gains support in Prince William county as well as Loudoun. It also depends on what Tim Kaine says or does over the next two years. Even northern Virginians are VERY protective of the confederate monuments. It is very unwise for any democrat to go against them as Northam and McAuliffe already have.
Ah yes, Corey Stewart will make big gains in prince William due to home advantage, just like how trump did very well in New York City..../s