2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

What does WAPO consider a "battleground"?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

CA-49 - https://mikelevin.org/democrat-mike-levin-has-initial-edge-in-49th-congressional-district-poll/

Levin internal:

Levin (D) - 44
Harkey (R) - 41

A lead inside the margin of error in a district Clinton won by 8 points and many national forecasters have as "Lean D" - found in a democratic internal.

A poll showing dems picking up Issa's seat? Terrible news for Democrats./s

It’s not terrible, but it’s not exactly good when Issa’s seat is within the MOE on your own internal poll. Issa’s seat should be, in theory, among the easiest pickups in the country for Democrats.

In theory.

In practice, CA-49 has a decent amount of low-turnout Latinos which is an issue for democrats in a midterm.

You'll find out that FL-27, a +16 Hillary open seat, will be much closer in 2018 too, because of the large Cuban population.

I have doubts that dems pick up more than 1 seat in Texas and 4 seats in California... they will have much more success in the tristate area (NJ/PA/NY) & the midwest (MN, IL, IA).

I have no idea why seats like IA-01 is not Lean D when pundits consider CA-49 Lean D, but whatever. Polling has indicated dems doing better in seats like IA-01, Tenney's seat, etc. but all of these are considered Tossup for god knows why.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Very surprising polls for NJ-03 & CA-25. I thought CA-25 would be an easy pickup, and I thought NJ-03 was a little harder than Atlas was thinking.

Don't care about the MN one cuz "generic dem" doesn't exist. Not sure why they didn't poll Craig when she's the only one in the dem primary....

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

GA-06 should be an easier pickup than GA-07, but the candidate quality is better in GA-07.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Nobody in Twitterverse or this forum was talking about these numbers buried in the Fox News poll-

Democratic Party-

Favorable: 50%  (+4)
Unfavorable: 46%

Republican Party-

Favorable: 39%
Unfavorable: 56%  (-17)

Link: https://www.scribd.com/document/386839782/Fox-August-2018-Naitonal-Topline-August-22-Release

Where are the "red wave" posters?

Trump has a 12% approval among Hillary voters and democrats. This crossover support will be devastating for dem chances

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The only Walk Away movement that exist is that of people leaving the Republican Party for tolerating the degenerate pig.

Timmy and I both #WalkedAway

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Ipsos/Reuters, Aug. 21-27, 2925 registered voters

D: 46 (+6)
R: 34 (-4)

(Don't freak out about the size of the swing.  This poll tends to be very bouncy.)

Gigantic swing. If this keeps up, dems will win 550 seats this nov.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

When can we expect data from Cohn's experiment?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

GOP Internal: Barr +4.

Barr: 49%
McGrath: 45%

McGrath with +11 favorable rating.

http://www.congressionalleadershipfund.org/memo-ky-06-polling-update/

Damn that was a fast turn around, lol. Not that I ever expected her to win by more than 5.

I still have a feeling that she will win though.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

UT-04 may be quirky, but it is still heavily Republican. It was always going to be a tough slog. I actually think McAdams is doing pretty well all things considered.