AL-SEN 2020: Doug Jones vs. The Entire Political Establishment of Alabama

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I believe the upcoming Supreme Court battle is important to Jones if he wants to have a chance at reelection. IMO, anything short of a Yes vote is political suicide.

That would abandon the very voters who put him there, the black voters who came out at presidential levels to support him.

That is true but white turnout will be up A LOT over 2017 due to it being a presidential year. 2017 was also an incredibly unique situation.

He couldn't win white voters over ROY FREAKING MOORE in 2017, he won't be able to win them in 2020. He needs to double down on his base and hope the Republicans put up another dreadful candidate. Pandering to conservative whites won't win him any votes, but will cost him many.

This is so painfully incorrect that it hurts. The base is going to be far more "motivated" by the presidential election. Hardly anyone cares about the Senate besides old farts. Doug Jones needs to win over old farts who are voting Republican in the presidential but get them to vote specifically for him.

Old farts tend to be far more informed about politics than young folks, who barely understand what the downballot even is.

Also, no, black voters did not turn out anywhere close to 2016 levels in Alabama. Only about 75% of blacks who voted in 2016 turned out in 2018.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Every liberal candidate that runs in Alabama gets a whopping 38%. All of the successful dems in Alabama have been white DINOs.

Why is that?

Because persuading moderate swing voters WORKS.... better than turning out the base. It doesn't really work very well in Alabama, but it's the best democrats have. Dems have to hope the presidential candidate turns out black people really well so Jones can focus on crossover votes.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Safe R unless 2020 is a democratic tsunami. Would have to be a bit bigger than 2008 wave for it to be competitive.

Colorado Senate is Likely D

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I should be clear that I actually think the initial polling for Jones and Gardner will be quite good. I wouldn't be surprised to see both of their initial polling to show a competitive race.

But just like Dean Heller, Mccaskill, Donnelly, Erik Paulsen, Coffman etc... the end result won't actually be close.