Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Trump closing gap quickly in Huffpost pollster average: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/trump-job-approval

Anybody putting all their midterm hopes on an unpopular Trump should be worried.

Ignoring the fact that they have yet to include the most recent Suffolk and CNN poll.

If you haven’t put Andrew on ignore, please do! He just wants attention like his man child leader

Seriously. You don't even have to ever see their posts ever more with the new Ignore option. I'm tired of seeing people quote LimoLibel.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Trump had a 43% favorability in FL in 2016

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, March 1-7, 21603 adults (19193 RV)

Among all adults:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

Among RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Utter devastation. Rain has formed over a certain users house and now their basement is flooded.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The reason Morning Consult approvals look meh for Trump in the rust belt white states and good for Trump in more diverse states is Consult very often underpolls miniorities.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Fair =/= Poor.

I know but most pollsters lump them together.

I think of them like this:

Excellent = Strongly Approve
Good = Somewhat Approve
Fair = Somewhat Disapprove
Poor = Strongly Disapprove

I don't think you can consider "Fair" as somewhat disapprove. "Fair" is a neutral sounding word.

I highly doubt every politician is that unpopular in Montana.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Again, his numbers never really diverge very far from 40. He'll dip below it and go slightly above it, but it never really changes.

I think his absolute floor is probably 38% average approval, because the country is too polarized for it to go much lower than that.

Without a recession or a really botched war, yes.

Once sh!t starts going down, his approval will plummet. The "somewhat approvers" (~15-20%) will no longer approve of him if they start struggling to make ends meet.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

PPP - National:

39% Approve (-5)
54% Diasppaprove (+5)

Source

A 5% shift in approval or disapproval is just barely outside the margin of error -- but it is outside the margin of error. This is a significant change in public attitudes.

It's mostly just a sample difference. This sample is more D friendly than most PPP polls, which generally somewhat lean republican actually.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Trump approval at 30% in PA.

Link: https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/708725106986767486-f-m-poll-release-march-2018.pdf

This is yet another poll that does Fair / Poor. "Fair" is not necessarily negative.

His favorables are 36-60

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Congressman Rick Saccone and the other 39 republican election losers since 2016 love Rasmussen polls

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Morning consult continues to underpoll miniorities lol

Kansas at +1 but Georgia at +5

yeahhhh sure jan

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

For the last week or so it seems like Trump has been losing ground in net approval, while the generic Congressional ballot has been getting closer.  But before that, just the opposite was true for a while; Trump was improving and the GCB was widening.

I don't know if this has any significance, but it seems odd.

(No one has actually changed their mind on anything since May 2017)

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Remember when Rasmussen had a 4 point gop bias in 2010 lol

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Yeah it's no secret that the dem brand is horrible. What do they have like, high 30s favorables? It's one of the reasons the GCB isn't particularly great for dems even though Trump and the GOP is so unpopular.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I didn’t realize reagan’s Approval ratings were kinda stinky in 82

How didn’t dems at least manage to win 2 or 3 other states in 84?

His approvals went up a lot in 84, states were less polarized across the board, and Mondale was mediocre (although not terrible).

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Obviously the scandals are hurting Trump. That's why he has a low 40's approval despite a fairly strong economy and mostly calm foreign policy. A generic republican would have low 50s - mid 50s approvals, assuming they did mostly the same policies as Trump but without all of the scandals/controversies.

Granted, the GOP's unpopular policies are also hurting Trump's approval, which is why generic Republican wouldn't be much more popular.

Most of the "controversies/scandals" don't negatively impact most people's day-to-day lives, so it makes sense that most Trump voters still approve of Trump. Most people's economics lives have been slightly (perhaps only marginally so) better than election day. I don't expect Trump's approvals to go below 40% unless the economy starts to go down, or if something like health care premiums are announced to go up by 20%.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Serious question here.

Is it possible, that Trump does so much better in rural/suburban areas, that some polls, not all but some, can oversample the urban vote?

In other words, if I did a poll of 100 people in Ohio, but 75 out of 100 were in Cuyahoga County, you would get a dramatically less-favorable result for Trump than if I evenly polled throughout all the counties in the state.

Is that possibly a factor? I get the impression his approval rating is always slightly higher than the polls show. He polls very, very strangely.

Given special election results, which have been the worst for the republican party since 1974, I think Trump's approvals are pretty accurate lol

Even where i live in rural Georgia, people aren't too big on him. Third party and Clinton voters almost universally dislike him (53% of voters) and a decent amount of Trump voters only voted for him bc of Clinton.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why aren't more of the Red Avatars here worried about Korean peace being detrimental to Dem chances to taking over the House? I'd honestly rather have a Dem Congressional majority than for the DPRK and the ROK to get along.

Because its May.

Also, because Seoul being a smoking crater seems like an awful price to pay for Dems flipping 40 seats rather than 30

Yeah jesus christ. Hofoid is insane.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I mean it just goes to show you that as long as the economy is going strong, a lot of people will follow their leader.

Bill Clinton got away with a lot of BS and had a 60% approval rating because the economy was doing so well.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Or it's announced that health care premiums are going up by 10-20% (in some cases, far more), which is more than the tax cut people got in a lot of cases.

Oh, and the premiums are going to go up mostly for older & vulnerable americans too...

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Y'all should just put hofool on ignore or something. Don't feel bad for him - he's used to it from girls in real life anyways.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It's not quite 37-61. Look at the question wording.

They ask if you would rate Trump's job performance as "Excellent", "Pretty Good", "Just Fair", or "Poor".

"Just Fair" doesn't exactly imply "disapprove", although it's not much of an endorsement either.

However, 17% people say Trump is doing an excellent job, whereas 47% are saying he is doing a poor job.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The same internal that has Van Drew up 18 points?

Yeah, the same internal that had Trump 52-45 approval, has Jeff Van Drew up by 18.

Only hofool can say D+18 is a "Tossup". I think he means his head was tossed up into the air as a child.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

ARG, May 17-20, 1100 adults (change from last month)

Approve 37 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Approval/disapproval by party ID:

R: 82/14
D: 6/91
I: 34/60

C+ rating from 538 tho, so I would be cautious about this one

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

ND and SD are such small states,  it's like HI,  not worth it.

But the people of those states are worth it.

The "too small to be worth it" attitude is a product of the inelasticity of so much of the electorate.

The people of all states are worthy of the attention of their prospective Presidents.

Exactly... and ND has shown itself to be very open-minded. It's frequently elected democratic house and democratic senators. While it did go republican by p massive margins from most of 2000-2016, they noticeably shifted hard to Obama in 2008.

Now I'm not saying dems should focus on ND or even campaign there... I'm just saying that it's worth contesting most areas in at least some elections.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Back to where he has been at his worst. Can he go lower? I doubt it. He's got too many cultists behind him who would believe him no matter what.

Trump's cult is no bigger than any other President. It's no surprise that his approval is as "high" as it is when the economy is doing pretty good. Most people don't obsessively follow every news story and care that Pruitt did some stuff or Trump said some mean thing. They tend to look at the overall story. And for most people... they are about as good or slightly better off than they were in 2016, with a marginally bigger pocketbook thanks to rising wages + tax cuts.

You'll see how small his cult really is if things actually start going south for people. His approvals may go down to about 25-29... which is exactly around Bush's levels.