Going to do "Tmth Ratings" a few times leading up to the primary and then after on how I think the results would be if the election were today. I encourage VPH to do something similar so we can have two different perspectives!
Republican Primary:
Colyer: 42%
Kobach: 39%
Selzer: 9%
Barnett: 6%
Others: 4%
Democratic Primary:
Kelly: 41%
Svaty: 36%
Brewer: 16%
Others: 7%
General Election Ratings:
Governor/Lt. Governor: Lean Republican
Secretary of State: Likely Republican
Attorney General: Safe Republican
Treasurer: Safe Republican
Insurance Commissioner: Safe Republican
State Legislature: Safe Republican - Democrats pick up 1-5 seats, will be very difficult to predict until after primary
If democrats are even remotely competitive in the governor race, they will likely pick up more than 1-5 seats. It's not very hard to pick up more than 1-5 when they have an 85-40 deficit in the state house.
People always underestimate how many seats will flip in state legislatures... smh at everyone who thought dems would gain 5-10 in VA and they ended up gaining 15 (and losing one by a coinflip).