Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

FOX also did income on its non-exit poll thing, and here is what they have:

Under 25,000: Jones +24
25-50K: Jones +11
50-75K: Moore +5
75-100K: Moore +12
100-200K: Moore +16
200-250K: Jones +29
250K+: Jones +21

They also asked about a Strange-Jones race:
Strange 48
Jones 47

But, of course, take that with a grain of salt because things would have been so different, especially in terms of who showed up.

Can you link Fox News's voter analysis?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

So, how does Jones win in 2020?

He probably needs 2020 to be a fairly D leaning environment. I think he has a 50/50 shot at winning if dems beat Trump by 10% nationally & he retains his pretty high current approvals (~53% approval).

Being a popular incumbent helps a lot, but obviously his GOP opponent will most likely not be nearly as bad as Roy.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Trump would have to lose the NPV by about 20% for Doug Jones to win re-election.

In other words, Doug Jones is hopeless.

He has a 53% approval rating and incumbency advantage is a thing. He's just as well liked as shelby.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Trump would have to lose the NPV by about 20% for Doug Jones to win re-election.

In other words, Doug Jones is hopeless.

He has a 53% approval rating and incumbency advantage is a thing. He's just as well liked as shelby.

Scott Brown and Mark Pryor had approval ratings above 60%

Yep, which is why dems need to beat Trump by around ~10% nationally for Jones to win. I definitely don't think dems need to beat TRump by 20% for Jones to make it... Scott Brown only lost by 8 despite Obama winning nationally by 4% and MA by 23%.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If Trump is on the ballot in 2020, Doug Jones is getting blanched. I'd say he has a 10% chance of re-election, and that's being generous. The reason he won in the first place was because Trump-voting republicans who couldn't bring themselves to vote for either candidate stayed home en masse, not because of some huge surge in democratic support.
Needles so to say, these voters will not be staying home in 2020.

2020 Alabama US senate election prediction:

Not Roy Moore (R): 54%

Doug Jones (D): 45%

Other: ~1%

I mean, it was both. There was actually a huge surge in Jones's vote among white independents/republicans. He was polling in the mid 40's even before the Roy Moore scandal. Look at how Jones got more votes in places like Shelby county than Hillary, despite much lower turnout.

And it wasn't only republican voters that didn't turn out. Many black voters that voted Hillary did not vote in the 2017 special election. Look at how Jones got way less votes in the black belt than Hillary (20-25% less votes).

A 9% R win is about what I'd expect in an even election, though.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If Trump is on the ballot in 2020, Doug Jones is getting blanched. I'd say he has a 10% chance of re-election, and that's being generous. The reason he won in the first place was because Trump-voting republicans who couldn't bring themselves to vote for either candidate stayed home en masse, not because of some huge surge in democratic support.
Needles so to say, these voters will not be staying home in 2020.

That’s factually wrong. They managed to get African American turnout to an historic high (even more than Obama in 2008)

That was only relative to the electorate. If republicans turned out, I bet the electorate would have only been 27% black (which, granted, would still mean black people turned out better than white in AL)

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Given that jones won 40% of mitch mcconnell approvers, i'm pretty sure strange would have won...

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why did Strange lose in 2006?

He was running against a former Alabama governor in a dem wave year, and barely lost, and this was back when Alabama was still hospitable to electing dems statewide. A lot has changed here in the last 12 years; most of the old yellow dog democrats have died off.

Who is Bradley Manning? I don't think that is a person running for Maryland Senate.