Will Trump be a 1 term President?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It will be hard for Trump to get reelected with his current approval rating unless he faces another candidate as unpopular as Hillary Clinton. I don't think the democrats will nominate another Hillary (40% favorable 55% unfavorable) Clinton-tier candidate, but maybe they will nominate a Romney-tier candidate (i think he was around 45% favorable 50% unfavorable?). That said, there's still 3 more years for his approval rating to go up, although I am skeptical he will be able to recover. If his approval rating goes up to 45%, I'd give him a 50% chance of getting reelected. It seems as if Trump has lost the most support in three states that were key to his victory -- PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin, so that will make things challenging.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Maybe.

The power of Presidential incumbency is immense.  Presidents who have been defeated for re-election were low-key guys who appeared indifferent (Carter, Bush 43, Hoover) during a crisis.  Trump's not low-key, and he's not likely to do nothing in the event of an economic downturn.

Eh, people talk a lot about the power of the presidential incumbency, but most of our recent presidents have had 50%+ approval ratings on election day. My theory is that any president that is below 45% in approval by election day is in trouble, especially if there is a good candidate. People talk about how Bush was reelected, but Bush was around 52% approval rating on election day, and while John Kerry was a fine candidate, he wasn't anything exceptional like Obama in 08.

Another thing to note is that many more presidents in the 19th century lost reelection than the 20th century, but it's hard to compare presidents from so far back especially without any approval rating polls. However, the point still stands that the power of presidential incumbency could be overrated.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If Trump is at 45% on Election Day, that would indicate he has taken significant actions to win over dissatisfied moderate Republicans and independents and has performed somewhat competently. Considering his campaign will perform a character assassination on whoever the Democrats nominate, like Sanders and Trump did to Clinton in 2016, I think 45% approval ratings would almost guarantee a Trump victory.

That being said, I highly doubt that happens. I think just about every potential Democrat would be somewhat popular in a general election and would be able to defeat Trump. Assuming he is still president and is on the ballot, I think he loses by an Obama '08 margin.

To be clear, the 50% chance of winning if Trump is at 45% approval rating assumes that his opponent has a 50% favorable (45% unfavorable) rating. Any favorability number lower than that for the opponent and Trump is basically guaranteed reelection.

But yeah, you make a good point that Trump's campaign is going to try its hardest to perform a character assassination on whoever his opponent is, and that will drag down his opponent's favorability rating unless they're very good at defending themselves.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Remember 2004, when Bush lost because everyone hated him and his foreign policy blunders? No way people would've re-elected an idiot like that.

Bush's lowest approval rating at any point in his first term was 46%.

46% is literally Trump's highest number ever on the Gallup tracking poll.

And, yet, Trump sits in the White House, while Hillary pounds salt.

Trump Denial continues.  I say this because folks just don't get it that Trump knows more about winning than anyone else.  He has more grit than any President I've seen in my lifetime, and he's not going to be run out of office.  He has the stones to tell his political enemies that if they're going to stick it to him, they're going to have to do it in full view of the voters.  He doesn't care about the ugliness of the victory; he cares about avoiding defeat, period.

Never underestimate Trump's power to get America to hate his opponent more than they hate him.

Hillary's favorability ratings were hardly better than Trump.

I doubt Trump could get most other politicians down to Hillary's favorability rating. Hillary just is fundamentally unlikeable as a person to most people (technocratic, reminds you of a grandma without the sweet quality, awful in front of the cameras, uninspiring, shrill voice, seemed very power-hungry... you name it). I couldn't stand her as a person (in some ways, I even liked Trump more than her as a person... despite the vile sexism and racism) even though I liked about 60-70% of her positions and liked Bill. I also supported her over Obama in 08 and over Bernie in 16.

Those qualities may seem irrelevant when you're voting for President, but candidates personality traits change how you view them in so many ways. And vs a reality TV star, it amplifies the effect of how important personality is, as Trump was very vague with his actual positions. I couldn't bring myself to not hate her as a person. I don't see that with most other potential candidates.

Personality matters more than policy when campaigning, especially vs a reality TV star.