Will Trump be a 1 term President?

[Senator-elect Spark]

And why? Please elaborate.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It will be hard for Trump to get reelected with his current approval rating unless he faces another candidate as unpopular as Hillary Clinton. I don't think the democrats will nominate another Hillary (40% favorable 55% unfavorable) Clinton-tier candidate, but maybe they will nominate a Romney-tier candidate (i think he was around 45% favorable 50% unfavorable?). That said, there's still 3 more years for his approval rating to go up, although I am skeptical he will be able to recover. If his approval rating goes up to 45%, I'd give him a 50% chance of getting reelected. It seems as if Trump has lost the most support in three states that were key to his victory -- PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin, so that will make things challenging.

[Burke Bro]

Probably. He's caught up in several scandals and his approval is at a record low. It was hard to see him (or Clinton) make it past a full term to begin with.

Then again, the Democrats could nominate an awful candidate and blow it like they did in 2016.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Yes, he gets crushed like Mondale 1984.

In my wildest dreams

[NYSforKennedy2024]

As much as /r/The_Donald, Breitbart, InfoWars, or /pol/ spews, Trump's approval ratings are generally on a negative trend. Also, the political climate in America is as toxic as ever. Those don't make for a good re-election season.

It all depends on two things, to me - Impeachment/lack thereof, and the primaries.

Personally I don't think impeachment will happen, so let's talk primaries.

Does Trump get primaried? By who? Sasse? Kasich? Romney? Fiorina? The Rock? Many of options here. A lot of candidates would split the Never Trump crowd and likely result in a Trump win, but if one candidate runs and gets the backing of the GOP establishment and the Never Trump crowd - chaos could ensue.

The Democratic primaries - Who wins? A progressive, a Clinton Democrat, or an outside centrist? The answer to this question will highly impact the answer to "Who won the 2020 election", albeit many rumored Democratic primary contenders are defeating Trump in polls right now.

[Illini Moderate]

Obviously its too  early to say, but if things keep going the way they are going (none/very few legislative accomplishments, pathetic approval rating, constant "scandals") then no way in hell he gets re elected. Even a polarizing Democrat like Elizabeth Warren will beat him.

I have never seen a President make so many completely avoidable political mistakes, nor have I seen any political figure cause so much self inflicted damage on themselves. Sometimes I honestly wonder if he even wants the job anymore. I'm not even being biased either.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I would say that are about 3-to-1 odds that he either does not win re-election or does not make it through the entirety of his first term.

Obviously there is a natural hesitancy to say that Trump is doomed because of something like approval ratings, as he's struggled with poor approval ratings for two years and he still was elected (against someone with slightly higher approval ratings than him). But his numbers in several key states are really poor (MI/WI/PA/AZ/FL/NC notably), and the 2020 candidate will almost certainly be more popular than Clinton was. Not to mention that he still has three more years to make some big gaffes and missteps, which he has shown himself prone to doing.

[Progressive]

Hopefully. To have two terms of chaotic failure would be devastating, but I also don't trust the Dems right now to get it together..

[Xing]

It depends on many factors. His approval rating in 2020, the economy, who the Democrats run and what their message is, how Trump runs his campaign in 2020, and how much money goes into both sides. I'd put his odds at about 50/50 right now, but if his approval ratings continue to erode and Democrats can get their act together, he'll have a tough time winning.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Maybe.

The power of Presidential incumbency is immense.  Presidents who have been defeated for re-election were low-key guys who appeared indifferent (Carter, Bush 43, Hoover) during a crisis.  Trump's not low-key, and he's not likely to do nothing in the event of an economic downturn.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Maybe.

The power of Presidential incumbency is immense.  Presidents who have been defeated for re-election were low-key guys who appeared indifferent (Carter, Bush 43, Hoover) during a crisis.  Trump's not low-key, and he's not likely to do nothing in the event of an economic downturn.

Eh, people talk a lot about the power of the presidential incumbency, but most of our recent presidents have had 50%+ approval ratings on election day. My theory is that any president that is below 45% in approval by election day is in trouble, especially if there is a good candidate. People talk about how Bush was reelected, but Bush was around 52% approval rating on election day, and while John Kerry was a fine candidate, he wasn't anything exceptional like Obama in 08.

Another thing to note is that many more presidents in the 19th century lost reelection than the 20th century, but it's hard to compare presidents from so far back especially without any approval rating polls. However, the point still stands that the power of presidential incumbency could be overrated.

[TML]

I wouldn't say it's impossible, but I wouldn't count on it either.

If Trump continues down his current path, he will at best be the Republican version of Jimmy Carter, or at worst have his term cut short by impeachment (or resignation under the threat of impeachment).

If he somehow turns around and backs off his alienating tactics, then he would at least increase his chances of winning again.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I could see Trump beating Kamala Harris despite a terrible approval rating.

[SJ84]

I could see Trump beating Kamala Harris despite a terrible approval rating.

Same.

I can see Trump becoming a one-term president but it will depend on if he gets a GOP challenger and who the leads the Dem ticket. I really think the Democratic ticket should lead with a Bill Clinton-type of candidate.

Harris would be an ideal VP choice though.

[Dr. Arch]

We can only hope at this point.

[Inmate Trump]

Ordinarily, he would be a one term president.

But his friends in Moscow will have their say again.

[BoAtlantis]

He's a solid favorite. He should campaign with the message of his accomplishments like reduced illegals, more manufacturing jobs and record-level stock market, so that his core base will stick by him.

Republicans have a lot of reasons to re-elect him. Assuming Trump doesn't get much done in his first term, there are tax cuts, Supreme Court seats (Ginsburg and Kennedy), Obamacare repeal, the wall and possibly more.

He's probably near the bottom of his approval ratings so there is a good chance it would be higher by the end of his first term.

[Bojack Horseman]

Nope. MI, WI, and PA will flip easily, and if the nominee is Harris or Booker, then NC, FL, and maybe even Georgia flip as well. Trump is the GOP's Carter and 2020 for the Republicans will be like what 1980 was for the Democrats.

[Lechasseur]

I could see Trump beating Kamala Harris despite a terrible approval rating.

Same.

I can see Trump becoming a one-term president but it will depend on if he gets a GOP challenger and who the leads the Dem ticket. I really think the Democratic ticket should lead with a Bill Clinton-type of candidate.

Harris would be an ideal VP choice though.

Agreed

[Da2017]

I could see Trump beating Kamala Harris despite a terrible approval rating.

 Harris can project warmth in ways Hillary could never dream. I think he have an easier time with Warren.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7ECWFT0N_O4&app=m&persist_app=1 Harris with ari melber talking about her favorite music.

[TheSaint250]

He probably won't even serve a full term

[Santander]

If he survives the whole term, and it looks increasingly like he will, he'll be a two-termer.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

No, he won't, because:

He probably won't even serve a full term

[tmthforu94]

It will be hard for Trump to get reelected with his current approval rating unless he faces another candidate as unpopular as Hillary Clinton. I don't think the democrats will nominate another Hillary (40% favorable 55% unfavorable) Clinton-tier candidate, but maybe they will nominate a Romney-tier candidate (i think he was around 45% favorable 50% unfavorable?). That said, there's still 3 more years for his approval rating to go up, although I am skeptical he will be able to recover. If his approval rating goes up to 45%, I'd give him a 50% chance of getting reelected. It seems as if Trump has lost the most support in three states that were key to his victory -- PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin, so that will make things challenging.

If Trump is at 45% on Election Day, that would indicate he has taken significant actions to win over dissatisfied moderate Republicans and independents and has performed somewhat competently. Considering his campaign will perform a character assassination on whoever the Democrats nominate, like Sanders and Trump did to Clinton in 2016, I think 45% approval ratings would almost guarantee a Trump victory.

That being said, I highly doubt that happens. I think just about every potential Democrat would be somewhat popular in a general election and would be able to defeat Trump. Assuming he is still president and is on the ballot, I think he loses by an Obama '08 margin.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If Trump is at 45% on Election Day, that would indicate he has taken significant actions to win over dissatisfied moderate Republicans and independents and has performed somewhat competently. Considering his campaign will perform a character assassination on whoever the Democrats nominate, like Sanders and Trump did to Clinton in 2016, I think 45% approval ratings would almost guarantee a Trump victory.

That being said, I highly doubt that happens. I think just about every potential Democrat would be somewhat popular in a general election and would be able to defeat Trump. Assuming he is still president and is on the ballot, I think he loses by an Obama '08 margin.

To be clear, the 50% chance of winning if Trump is at 45% approval rating assumes that his opponent has a 50% favorable (45% unfavorable) rating. Any favorability number lower than that for the opponent and Trump is basically guaranteed reelection.

But yeah, you make a good point that Trump's campaign is going to try its hardest to perform a character assassination on whoever his opponent is, and that will drag down his opponent's favorability rating unless they're very good at defending themselves.