JOE MANCHIN 2020!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I like Joe Manchin.

However, progressives have been gaining a lot of traction in the Democratic party, and after Hillary losing, they feel vindicated. The next candidate is definitely going to be someone more progressive than Manchin. Normally, they would get punished by a more moderate voter like me, but vs Trump (or Cruz, or another one of the many radical tea partiers that infiltrated the Republican party), I'm not going to think twice pulling the lever for a progressive, even though I wouldn't be super happy about it. Kasich's the farthest right I would consider, and it appears as if he will be destroyed in the 2020 primaries if he even tries.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

You do know that not everything can be blamed on "people disagree with me." Fact is, extremist candidates decrease turnout. The Democrats who have come closest in special elections have both been Clinton supporters.

Bernard Brother Rob Quist overperformed Clinton by like 16% or something. Meanwhile the 30,000,000 spent on Jon Ossoff translated into the dweeb polling, what, like a decimal better than Hillary in GA-06? 

Quist ran against a guy who beat up a reporter and a libertarian third party and couldn't come within 5 points. 

Quist ran a great campaign considering Montana voted for trump by 20 points not to mention its debatable whether or not he would have lost if so many people hadn't early voted before gianforte's scandal

Montana is fairly elastic. Obama came close to winning Montana in 08, 1/2 of the senators there is a Democrat, and Steve Bullock was reelected in 2012. They're very willing to vote for the right democrat.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Also Jon Ossoff had a good showing in GA-06, and he would have done far worse if he ran a more progressive candidate. You really think the rich folks at GA-06 wanted a progressive?

You need to stop looking at the presidential vote for house and senate elections. What matters far more for these elections is the partisan lean of the district. GA-06 was a very wealthy and educated district so they loved standard republicans, but Trump is a lot different from a standard republican. Trump did poorly among educated people, and did poorly among wealthier people in comparison to traditional Republicans; however, he also did far better among uneducated and did much better among poorer districts compared to traditional Republicans.

Trump's base and the standard Republican base overlap a lot, but they also differ in some ways.

Obama-Trump districts are where we will see the most gains in congressional elections I would imagine.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Are you serious? Ossoff underperformed Clinton he lost by 3.2 points while clinton lost by 1 point
Quist who ran a populist campaign got 44% of the vote while Clinton got 35% Quist got 9% more than clinton while Ossoff lost by 2.2% more if anything this shows that left populist candidates are more effective than fiscally moderate candidates like Ossoff and Clinton

You completely missed the premise of my argument.

The premise of my argument is that Trump vs Clinton is not a usual election in the sense of Republican vs Democrat.

Clinton underperformed very hard among poorer americans in comparison to other Democrats. Trump underperformed very hard among richer americans in comparison to other Republicans. Their coalitions overlap about 90% with the standard person of their party, but that 10% makes a big difference in elections.

This means that using the 2016 vote to judge results in 2018 congressional / senate elections is a bit misleading.

GA-06 is a wealthy and highly educated district. This kind of district loves standard Republicans. This kind of district hates Trump. Tom Price won by 22 in this district; Trump only won by 1.5.

I go to school near this district. I was bombarded with ads for this district. Trust me, this district is not friendly to the typical Democrat. Hillary vs Trump was a special case.

That said, I understand you want to see more progressive voices in the democrat party. That's great. I think running progressives in WWC areas that were formerly friendly to Democrats like in Michigan, Wisconsin, PA, Ohio, etc. could be a very effective strategy. But I'm telling you, running a progressive in a rich republican friendly district like GA-06 is a bad idea.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Source:

INCOME

2016 election (+2.1 hillary):


2012 election (+3.9 obama):



EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

2016 election


2012 election

Notice how Obama did significantly better than Hillary among poorer americans, whereas Hillary did better than Obama among richer.

Another divide between the two elections is educational attainment. Hillary did better among college graduates, but worse among less than college graduated.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Anybody thinking Joe Manchin could become a Democratic nominee is seriously delusional, and that;s putting it mildly.

You know their trolling right? get on the discord their talking about how much fun it is to saltmine bernie supporters

Link to the discord?