Nailed it. That sums up most of the Southern states, like SC, and Alabama, and Mississippi. far too polarized of an electorate to experience a large swing.
SC has a much more dynamic economy than Alabama or Mississippi, and is therefore attracting many more transplants from the North-east than the two other states are. Also, given 4 more years, with some older voters dying off, and more liberal transplants moving in, you could see a shift of a couple of points.
Probably not enough to give Obama a win in '12, but you never know with the state of the Republican party.
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