NYTimes/Siena: Biden+6 in AZ, +3 in FL, +6 in PA, +11 in WI

[redjohn]

Seems Selzer isn't going to totally prove me wrong. Biden will win WI, MI, AZ, and PA at the very least. WI is a very safe bet for Biden, and has been for a while.

[redjohn]

So time to ask, WTF is in the water in Wisconsin? Is it just because the state is the US epicenter of COVID right now, or is there something more...

It's partly that, but mostly because WI is very fertile ground for Democrats when they're doing well nationally. In raw numbers, Trump never had more backing in WI than Mitt Romney who lost handsomely. The metro areas are going to come out hard for Biden, and with the 'burbs swinging to Democrats and rural areas probably not swinging too hard to Trump, the state is lost for Trump.

[redjohn]

So time to ask, WTF is in the water in Wisconsin? Is it just because the state is the US epicenter of COVID right now, or is there something more...

It's partly that, but mostly because WI is very fertile ground for Democrats when they're doing well nationally. In raw numbers, Trump never had more backing in WI than Mitt Romney who lost handsomely. The metro areas are going to come out hard for Biden, and with the 'burbs swinging to Democrats and rural areas probably not swinging too hard to Trump, the state is lost for Trump.

It's funny because the conventional wisdom always had it as the least likely of the Rust Belt Trio to flip back.

Conventional wisdom from posters here who really overestimated Walker's wins and Trump's plurality-win in 2016