NY Times/Siena: Biden +10 WI; +8 MI (user search)
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  NY Times/Siena: Biden +10 WI; +8 MI (search mode)
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Author Topic: NY Times/Siena: Biden +10 WI; +8 MI  (Read 3364 times)
redjohn
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -4.17

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« on: October 12, 2020, 12:38:11 PM »

WI and MI are likely Biden. Trump's not going to be able to net enough votes in rural WI to make up for Biden's margins in the cities (and suburbs).
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redjohn
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2020, 12:42:23 PM »

Whoa... this poll has Biden WINNING WOW by 3!

This includes the non-City of Milwaukee municipalities in Milwaukee County.

Still... that's a huge swing to Biden.

I need to see it before I can believe it.

Oh, I agree, I am skeptical. That would be a significant improvement from Biden vs Baldwin in 2018. I mean, Biden would have to win EVERY MKE CTY suburb (including Franklin), Waukesha City, Mequon, Menominee Falls, Brookfield/Elm Grove, and New Berlin to "win" the MKE burbs with the rest of WOW. Plus, he'd have to be winning Wauwatosa/West Allis/North Side 70/30.

If that happened? Wisconsin would become Virginia overnight.

It's not happening. I expect these numbers in some of the 'burbs (which are quite rosy for Biden):

Waukesha: Trump 52%, Biden 47%
New Berlin: Trump 58%, Biden 41%
Brookfield: Trump 54%, Biden 45%
Menomonee Falls: Trump 55%, Biden 44%

Waukesha county-wide result:
Trump 151,807 (59%)
Biden 100,347 (39%)

Baldwin won by 11 statewide and still lost the city of Waukesha by 5. Most of these areas will trend D, but not enough to tip them over unless Biden is winning statewide by 15+.
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