Marquette poll of WI: Biden+5

[redjohn]

BIDEN: 46% (-2)
TRUMP: 41% (-3)

700 likely voters

[redjohn]

Both candidates losing support is an interesting result. Biden almost certainly has a slight lead statewide, though.

[redjohn]

Seems that WI is inching closer to becoming the tipping-point state as PA swings into Biden's column.

[redjohn]

Seems that WI is inching closer to becoming the tipping-point state as PA swings into Biden's column.

A bit of an overreaction to one poll. We've had multiple other high quality polls of Wisconsin closer to the 6-8 range.

Recent high-quality polls have shown the race in PA is more like Biden+8, whereas Wisconsin is probably slightly to the right of that. Could change, but Biden is favored in either state. Just thinking that WI possibly puts Biden over the top.

[redjohn]

Seems that WI is inching closer to becoming the tipping-point state as PA swings into Biden's column.

A bit of an overreaction to one poll. We've had multiple other high quality polls of Wisconsin closer to the 6-8 range.

Recent high-quality polls have shown the race in PA is more like Biden+8, whereas Wisconsin is probably slightly to the right of that. Could change, but Biden is favored in either state. Just thinking that WI possibly puts Biden over the top.

Winning without WI is far easier than winning without PA, so I think Biden would take that trade.  Not to mention the resumption of clear Biden leads in Florida in the last week or so of polling. 

MU Law seems to always have about this margin for Biden regardless of how the national polls are swinging.  Points for consistency.

That's true. If FL goes to Biden, talk of WI/AZ is pretty much pointless. I'm operating under the assumption that FL is and always has been a tossup, despite polling favoring Biden recently. I could end up being wrong, but the state that went to Republicans in a Trump midterm is almost certainly not giving Biden any impressive margin.

[redjohn]

I would imagine this is closer to the final result...

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1313893642080264194

I wouldn’t.  If your not solid Biden after this absolutely AWFUL week for Trump, what is going to make you decide him at the end?

Lmfao so this is the poll that’s locked in for you and none of the other ones?

They don’t call it the Gold Standard for no reason...

The gold standard right across the border in IA showed Biden with 47% of the vote there, though. Biden is probably not as low as 46% in WI if he's tied with a higher number in IA.

[redjohn]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1313893749756489728

The trend is interesting.

If Biden closes the campaign strong, preferably with a final debate performance where Trump melts down and Biden scores more TV-worthy moments, he can win WI by a decent margin. Trump's path to winning relies on low turnout in Milwaukee and big swings to Trump among rural areas to make up for the swings towards Biden that will likely occur in Dane+WOW.