Marquette poll of WI: Biden+5

[redjohn]

BIDEN: 46% (-2)
TRUMP: 41% (-3)

700 likely voters

[wbrocks67]

Are they serious with the undecideds here...

and once again, 4% for Jorgensen? Really?

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1313891408521068544

[Sestak]

13% undecided? JUNK IT!

[Gass3268]

13% undecided? JUNK IT!

They have 4% going to Jo Jorgensen.

[CellarDoor]

Are they serious with the undecideds here...

and once again, 4% for Jorgensen? Really?

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1313891408521068544

I believe they also have a very strict likely voter screen.

[Buzz]

Best poll for Trump all week, am I’m being 100% serious.

[Horus]

Biden +3-5 will probably be the result here, but there are way too many undecideds for me to trust this specific poll.

[redjohn]

Both candidates losing support is an interesting result. Biden almost certainly has a slight lead statewide, though.

[Horus]

Both candidates losing support is an interesting result. Biden almost certainly has a slight lead statewide, though.

The debate really turned people off.

[wbrocks67]

We somehow went from 6% undecided to nearly 10% undecided despite being a month closer to the election. Why

[wbrocks67]

Both candidates losing support is an interesting result. Biden almost certainly has a slight lead statewide, though.

The debate really turned people off.

A super high # of undecideds it not bearing out in too many polls right now, so this one is an outlier in how low the #s are. This is like NYT/Siena on steroids.

[The Mikado]

Best poll for Trump all week, am I’m being 100% serious.

I agree with you, fwiw. I thought that the Marquette poll would be better for Biden than this. I was expecting Biden by 8 or 9 given recent trends.

And Biden only on 46% is definitely not the sort of thing that inspires confidence for him.

Of course, same is doubly true for Trump at 41.

Both candidates losing support is an interesting result. Biden almost certainly has a slight lead statewide, though.

The debate really turned people off.

I think it might actually be people going undecided as a reaction to Trump's infection.

[redjohn]

Seems that WI is inching closer to becoming the tipping-point state as PA swings into Biden's column.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 30 - October 4
Changes with August 30 - September 3

Biden 46% (-2)
Trump 41% (-3)
Jorgensen 4% (n/c)

[wbrocks67]

Seems that WI is inching closer to becoming the tipping-point state as PA swings into Biden's column.

A bit of an overreaction to one poll. We've had multiple other high quality polls of Wisconsin closer to the 6-8 range.

[wbrocks67]

Are they serious with the undecideds here...

and once again, 4% for Jorgensen? Really?

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1313891408521068544

I believe they also have a very strict likely voter screen.

Which makes me wonder how the hell Jorgesen is getting 4%.

[DrScholl]

Best poll for Trump all week, am I’m being 100% serious.

He should be up 10% or more here based on Republican logic so being down 5% and only at 41% is not good.

[Gass3268]

Gonna need to see who are undecided. Also gonna need to see if this includes pushed leaners, which they have.

[redjohn]

Seems that WI is inching closer to becoming the tipping-point state as PA swings into Biden's column.

A bit of an overreaction to one poll. We've had multiple other high quality polls of Wisconsin closer to the 6-8 range.

Recent high-quality polls have shown the race in PA is more like Biden+8, whereas Wisconsin is probably slightly to the right of that. Could change, but Biden is favored in either state. Just thinking that WI possibly puts Biden over the top.

[Buzz]

Best poll for Trump all week, am I’m being 100% serious.

I agree with you, fwiw. I thought that the Marquette poll would be better for Biden than this. I was expecting Biden by 8 or 9 given recent trends.

And Biden only on 46% is definitely not the sort of thing that inspires confidence for him.

Of course, same is doubly true for Trump at 41.

Both candidates losing support is an interesting result. Biden almost certainly has a slight lead statewide, though.

The debate really turned people off.

I think it might actually be people going undecided as a reaction to Trump's infection.

Agreed.  I was expecting a 51-41 result.

[wbrocks67]

I would imagine this is closer to the final result...

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1313893642080264194

[Buzz]

I would imagine this is closer to the final result...

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1313893642080264194

I wouldn’t.  If your not solid Biden after this absolutely AWFUL week for Trump, what is going to make you decide him at the end?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I would imagine this is closer to the final result...

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1313893642080264194

I wouldn’t.  If your not solid Biden after this absolutely AWFUL week for Trump, what is going to make you decide him at the end?

It depends.  What's the over/under on how many more dumb/awful things will Trump do in the next four weeks?

[Skill and Chance]

Seems that WI is inching closer to becoming the tipping-point state as PA swings into Biden's column.

A bit of an overreaction to one poll. We've had multiple other high quality polls of Wisconsin closer to the 6-8 range.

Recent high-quality polls have shown the race in PA is more like Biden+8, whereas Wisconsin is probably slightly to the right of that. Could change, but Biden is favored in either state. Just thinking that WI possibly puts Biden over the top.

Winning without WI is far easier than winning without PA, so I think Biden would take that trade.  Not to mention the resumption of clear Biden leads in Florida in the last week or so of polling. 

MU Law seems to always have about this margin for Biden regardless of how the national polls are swinging.  Points for consistency.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Very strict LV screen in a state where mail-in ballots are coming in like hotcakes. Into the average it goes.