NYT/Siena-GA/IA/TX: Tied, Biden +3, Trump +3 (user search)
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  NYT/Siena-GA/IA/TX: Tied, Biden +3, Trump +3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NYT/Siena-GA/IA/TX: Tied, Biden +3, Trump +3  (Read 3035 times)
redjohn
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -4.17

P P P
« on: September 24, 2020, 10:35:37 AM »
The notes on Texas's LV model potentially being off (underestimating Biden support) seems ominous for Trump, given that TX is guaranteed to have a different voter pool this cycle. Trump can hang on there, but he's going to somehow have to stem the tide of suburban voters turning out for Biden. Not sure how he plans on doing that.
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redjohn
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2020, 10:46:28 AM »
If you compare Trump's 2016 vote shares to cross-tabs:

IA

Voters 18-29: Trump -8
Voters 30-44: Trump -9
Voters 45-64: Trump -7
Voters 65+: Trump -12

Men: Trump -12
Women: Trump -8

GA

Voters 18-29: Trump +1
Voters 30-44: Trump +3
Voters 45-64: Trump -14
Voters 65+: Trump +1

Men: Trump -9
Women: Trump -4

TX

Voters 18-29: Trump -21
Voters 30-44: Trump -5
Voters 45-64: Trump -8
Voters 65+: Trump -3

Men: Trump -5
Women: Trump -6
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