538 Democratic primary model is up

[redjohn]

Part of the problem that reflects what is almost definitely very inaccurate projections in most states is that we have far fewer polls this cycle than 2016. Since November, we've gotten just 8 polls of Iowa. In the same time frame in 2016, we got 19 polls of Iowa. We've gotten 8 polls of NH, whereas last time in this period we got 14.

There is clearly a lack of primary polling. Models can only be so accurate with far fewer polls.

[redjohn]

Worth noting that Sanders was never ahead (or even close) in 538's model in 2016. At this time in 2016, he was at a 16% chance of winning Iowa (to Clinton's 68%).