Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[redjohn]

Very disappointing. Expected a narrow-ish win, this is surprising.

[redjohn]

I think Kelly wins the supreme court race due to my anxiety from last year's horrible loss. He might win by a few points, too. Sad stuff.

Voted early a few weeks ago for Karofsky, not the biggest fan of hers but hope she pulls through. It's difficult, not being allowed to campaign and all.

[redjohn]

Wisconsin GOP never lets you down. Always the craziest, most ridiculous moves in the region. They're effectively murderers.

[redjohn]

Considering how insane and chaotic this election is, can we agree to autoban anyone who tries to use the Supreme Court results to extrapolate to anything?

Except for extrapolating that Republicans are going to do everything they can to disenfranchise voters this November

[redjohn]

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1247818110524162049?s=21

This is better then I thought it would be in Madison, could get bit better too as the week progresses.

Hopefully it continues to rises. If Karofsky gets ~80% of the vote here and rural turnout is lower, she could maybe pull it off. Fingers crossed.

[redjohn]

A couple benchmarks for a Karofsky win: She absolutely has to get around 80% of the vote in Dane County. It's bad, bad news if she's below 60% in Milwaukee; she should aim for ~65% there. If it looks like any counties in SW WI are going for Kelly, that's also bad news.

A couple good bellwether counties, although it could be iffy this time based on weird turnout: Kenosha and Brown. If either candidate is leading in both they probably win statewide.

[redjohn]

Anybody find a map yet?

https://projects.jsonline.com/topics/election/2020/4/13/wisconsin-spring-election-results-april-7.html

[redjohn]

A couple benchmarks for a Karofsky win: She absolutely has to get around 80% of the vote in Dane County. It's bad, bad news if she's below 60% in Milwaukee; she should aim for ~65% there. If it looks like any counties in SW WI are going for Kelly, that's also bad news.

A couple good bellwether counties, although it could be iffy this time based on weird turnout: Kenosha and Brown. If either candidate is leading in both they probably win statewide.

Brown leans almost 6 points to the right in Supreme Court elections on average. You are right on when it comes to Kenosha, however. Leans only ~.75% to the left.

Ah, okay. I was just looking at the results maps from the 2019 and 2017 supreme court elections and saw Brown is generally close to the statewide result.

[redjohn]

First precinct reporting:

Karofsky: 79
Kelly: 53

same precinct in 2019:

Neubauer: 80
Hagedorn: 60

lol

[redjohn]

First precinct reporting:

Karofsky: 79
Kelly: 53

same precinct in 2019:

Neubauer: 80
Hagedorn: 60

lol

I’ve seen enough.

Karofsky landslide anyone?

[redjohn]

Are we really freaking out based on one precinct. LMFAO

it's a joke. Race still a tossup

[redjohn]

The Fond du Lac numbers are very close to the 2019 race, which is what is expected.

[redjohn]

Waukesha numbers looking okay for Jill, underwhelming for Kelly. If there's any justice in the world, Karofsky will pull this off.

[redjohn]

My big worry right now is that it won't matter if Jill does marginally better in conservative counties because urban turnout might be way down.

[redjohn]

Rock county numbers are very bad for Karofsky.

[redjohn]

Karofsky will not win if those Dane numbers stay close to where they are. Not sure where they're coming from in Dane

[redjohn]

Where are the results coming from in Ozaukee? 37% looks good for Jill.

37% isn't good for her, that's exactly what Neubauer got last time

[redjohn]

Karnofsky moves over 70 in Dane.

Hopefully it continues to climb up

[redjohn]

Kenosha results with 67% in are horrific for Karofsky. Is DDHQ correct?

[redjohn]

thats def wrong, 67% of Kenosha is not like 500 votes lol

Didn't catch that. Someone entered it in wrong certainly

[redjohn]

Dodge is around 66% in, and Kelley doing net 7-8 points worse than Hagedorn, fwiw.

Good sign I guess. Some counties looking bad for both candidates, it's hard to make a conclusion yet

[redjohn]

Some of these initial rural results look absolutely terrible for Kelley. Obviously depends where they come from, but wow.

Oh how amazing it would be if Kelly absolutely bombed up north. Fingers are crossed!

[redjohn]

Looks like Karofsky might be slightly favored at this point. Thank God.

[redjohn]

I think this is showing that in an alternate universe without coronavirus, Karofsky would be walking away with this.

[redjohn]

Yikes if the GOP loses this race despite their blatant voter suppression tactics. Absolutely embarrassing.