Predict Iowa for the Democrats

[Flying Dog]

Iowa Caucasus:

Obama: 39%
Clinton: 29%
Edwards: 18%

[Flying Dog]

1 of 3 predictions:

Obama: 31%
Clinton: 32%
Edwards: 24%

[Flying Dog]

So, old (female) farts will dominate the caucuses throughout Iowa like they always have, giving Hillary Clinton the victory and momentum she needs. 

However, polls show the old farts are split between Edwards and Hillary. And the females are split between Obama and Clinton.

[Flying Dog]

So, old (female) farts will dominate the caucuses throughout Iowa like they always have, giving Hillary Clinton the victory and momentum she needs. 

However, polls show the old farts are split between Edwards and Hillary. And the females are split between Obama and Clinton.

And how valuable (i.e. accurate) are those polls when it comes to Iowa? 

Not very. However, the particular poll I was thinking about, the Des Moines Register one, at least had the order right for 2004. So, I am grabbing on to any little bit of info available.

[Flying Dog]

1 of 3 predictions:

Obama: 34% (31)
Clinton: 30% (32)
Edwards: 25% (24)

[Flying Dog]

Edwards 33%
Obama 28%
Clinton 20%
Dodd 11%

Edwards campaign gets a shot in the arm.  Obama's keeps on trucking.  Clinton's is staggered a bit and Dodd lives to breathe another day and has a bit of a home field advantage in NH.  None of the others can be encouraged with the results.  First to drop out will be Richardson.

11% for Dodd? You have to be kidding me.

I'm grasping a bit, but there's always a surprise in Iowa - someone who connects better than expected.  I'm thinking this year it'll be Dodd.  Unfortunately for Dodd, he'll be no better than 4th place anyway, and a fairly distant 4th at that, so I'm not sure if it'll have any real meaning.  We'll see.  How was Edwards polling 4 years ago heading into Iowa?

 it was really that the polls were overestimating Gephardt and the minor candidates.

It was largely the Union support that sunk Gephardt. They weren't very reliable and some even jumped ship for Kerry and Edwards at the last minute.

[Flying Dog]

Obama: 37%
Clinton: 27%
Edwards: 25%