UK Election 2010

[Adlai Stevenson]

At the moment Labour seem resurgent under Gordon Brown and it feels like Cameron's 'honeymoon period' with the electorate is definitely over.  I still think that Cameron has to prove himself in terms of experience and clout - that will clearly be the Labour line of attack; that he is inexperience, has no policies and comes from a privileged background.

To win I think Labour basically need not to screw up terribly - which is difficult for a government in power after 12 years (if the election is in 2009).  Getting us out of Iraq eventually and a slight chance of emphasis could win back many traditional Labour defectors from the Lib Dems last time round. 

The Liberal Democrats themselves seem to be suffering from a loss of initiative - the revitalisation of the Conservatives under Cameron and Labour under Brown to a lesser extent mean their share of the vote and seats seem bound to fall at this point.  A recent YouGov poll put them at just 12% of the vote. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

The News of The World/ICM poll showed:

A 44%-38% Conservative lead.  This translated into the loss of 49 Labour MPs, including Home Secretary Jacqui Smith.  The Liberal Democrats were on 12%.  71% of Tories were sure to vote; 59% of Labour voters were sure to vote.  52% of all voters said they were sure to vote.